NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	108		Excitement	11.3 [30]		MVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): +31.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	109		Comeback	13.8 [116]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -50.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.22,0.22	0.07	0.16	0.01	14	58%	0.24	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.07
Joakim Noah	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.02	-0.02	10	70%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	9	65%	0.15	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.09
Tyrus Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	5	69%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.02	0.06	-0.06	-0.02	20	56%	0.19	2	-0.17	1	0%	-0.03
Aaron Gray	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09	-0.03	-0.09	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.02	7	7%	-0.11	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.51	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.51	-0.10	-0.43	-0.03	19	44%	-0.37	5	-0.14	3	67%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.13	0.16	-0.02	30	56%	0.33	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.09	0.16	-0.00	11	68%	0.31	1	-0.06	6	50%	-0.07
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.05	0.00	6	108%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	10	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Craig Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.09	-0.09	-0.16	0.02	-0.06	11	33%	-0.01	5	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	11	32%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.19	-0.19	-0.03	-0.16	-0.00	4	45%	-0.11	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	31.5	14.8	24.8	1.8	33.2	2.5	20.8	159.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +46.0%

CHI -12.4%

MIN +20.5%

MIN +2.3%

CHI -6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIN	NBA	CHI	MIN	NBA
this game	15.3	16.2	15.5	108.0	106.9	106.4
season	14.8	15.8		106.3	104.3
opponent	15.1	15.7		109.2	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	13.8	13.9	15.3	17.8	17.3	15.3
MIN	16.2	15.4	17.4	16.5	14.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	52	52	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.06	3	-4	7	15.1	15.5	-0.42	16.7	15.6	1.09
Thabo Sefolosha	21	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.15	-7	6	-13	15.5	15.3	0.22	15.0	16.5	-1.52
Kirk Hinrich	46	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.26	-12	11	-23	15.2	15.4	-0.23	14.7	17.4	-2.66
Joakim Noah	64	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.30	4	-5	9	15.4	15.1	0.25	17.4	14.0	3.36
Derrick Rose	78	81	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.54	10	-11	21	15.7	13.8	1.90	17.0	13.1	3.82
Aaron Gray	31	30	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	2	-5	13.4	16.2	-2.82	14.0	17.1	-3.08
Luol Deng	82	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.59	6	-7	13	14.9	17.0	-2.07	16.2	15.9	0.28
Ben Gordon	74	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.68	2	-3	5	15.1	15.8	-0.74	16.3	15.7	0.60
Andres Nocioni	53	55	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.57	-10	9	-19	16.6	13.8	2.77	15.5	16.9	-1.37

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Gomes	57	54	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.97	-11	12	-23	17.0	15.1	1.95	13.6	17.3	-3.75
Randy Foye	82	80	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.61	-3	4	-7	16.1	16.3	-0.15	14.8	17.1	-2.25
Rodney Carney	40	40	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	-7	15	14.0	17.5	-3.50	15.4	15.2	0.25
Al Jefferson	81	80	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.54	-4	5	-9	16.3	15.8	0.46	14.9	16.8	-1.87
Kevin Love	62	62	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.19	16	-15	31	15.9	16.6	-0.78	16.7	13.0	3.67
Brian Cardinal	12	11	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	-2	5	15.7	16.2	-0.58	18.4	14.9	3.44
Sebastian Telfair	68	67	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.16	-8	9	-17	16.9	14.7	2.21	15.2	15.4	-0.19
Mike Miller	66	65	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.50	14	-13	27	16.2	16.1	0.14	16.5	13.0	3.49
Craig Smith	32	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	12	-23	16.8	15.9	0.93	13.4	16.2	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.14,0.21,0.24,0.09,0.46,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 92, NYK 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.24,0.59,1	88.4%
TOR 101, CHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.3,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.27,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	87.5%
WAS 100, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.09,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.66,0.91,1	87.5%