NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	14.4 [3]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +48.9%
Chicago Bulls	102		Comeback	18.8 [51]		LVP	James Johnson (TOR): -36.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.07	0.34	-0.02	6	71%	0.43	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Ed Davis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	6	69%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	7	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	13	67%	0.27	6	-0.37	4	100%	0.07
Aaron Gray	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	7	43%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.27	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.31,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.09	-0.17	0.01	18	37%	-0.14	2	-0.12	10	80%	0.05
Gary Forbes	-0.33	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.33	-0.08	-0.25	-0.01	16	35%	-0.29	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.18
James Johnson	-0.37	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.37	-0.04	-0.32	0.01	14	59%	-0.15	6	-0.21	6	83%	-0.06

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.49	0.49	-0.02	0.51	-0.00	24	43%	0.52	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.32,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	19	60%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.06
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.38,0.29,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	18	55%	0.19	1	-0.13	6	83%	-0.07
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	53%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.10	10	60%	-0.05
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	9	22%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	7	21%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	8	22%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	31.1	15.7	23.3	1.7	44.1	1.8	18.5	162.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +33.2%

TOR -14.3%

TOR -32.0%

CHI +52.1%

CHI +10.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHI	NBA	TOR	CHI	NBA
this game	17.1	15.7	15.6	105.2	104.1	102.8
season	16.5	16.0		98.9	104.7
opponent	15.9	15.2		97.0	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	15.2	15.9	19.9	19.4	14.2	17.1
CHI	14.8	15.4	16.1	16.6	15.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	44	46	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.13	5	-6	11	16.3	17.8	-1.51	15.5	15.8	-0.27
Ed Davis	33	33	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.31	-8	7	-15	17.1	17.2	-0.07	16.6	15.2	1.38
Linas Kleiza	32	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.19	-12	11	-23	17.5	17.0	0.50	15.5	15.7	-0.19
Gary Forbes	87	87	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.54	7	-8	15	16.7	21.6	-4.88	16.0	13.1	2.90
Andrea Bargnani	66	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.72	8	-9	17	17.5	16.3	1.22	15.2	16.6	-1.39
Jose Calderon	81	83	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.59	2	-3	5	17.3	16.0	1.35	15.5	16.8	-1.34
James Johnson	85	87	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.53	-1	0	-1	17.0	18.2	-1.18	15.6	16.4	-0.79
Amir Johnson	52	52	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.60	-6	5	-11	17.8	16.3	1.51	15.8	15.5	0.27

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	29	28	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-5	11	15.9	15.6	0.28	15.2	17.9	-2.76
Carlos Boozer	69	66	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.61	0	1	-1	15.8	15.3	0.55	17.2	16.9	0.29
Kyle Korver	49	50	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-11	23	15.2	16.2	-1.00	16.0	18.4	-2.41
Luol Deng	92	90	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.51	3	-2	5	15.4	19.0	-3.55	17.2	15.5	1.74
CJ Watson	70	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.61	-3	4	-7	15.4	16.2	-0.77	17.7	15.7	1.94
Jimmy Butler	14	13	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	-1	3	15.7	15.7	0.06	19.2	16.8	2.33
Taj Gibson	55	55	-0.12	0.61	-0.73	-0.23	4	-3	7	15.7	15.6	0.15	17.5	16.7	0.83
Joakim Noah	24	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	9	-17	14.7	16.0	-1.21	15.7	17.6	-1.85
Omer Asik	33	33	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.24	2	-1	3	16.2	15.4	0.74	17.1	17.2	-0.07
Ronnie Brewer	55	52	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.17	-13	14	-27	16.5	14.6	1.84	18.1	16.0	2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.3,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.27,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 98, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.09,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,1	91.3%
MEM 107, LAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.25,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.68,0.74,1	88.6%
MIL 90, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.43,0.34,0.08,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	88.4%