NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	119		Excitement	8.3 [233]		MVP	Jrue Holiday (MIL): +77.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	120		Comeback	111.4 [31]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -31.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caleb Martin	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.09	-0.00	7	75%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17	0.04	0.11	-0.02	17	47%	0.17	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tyler Herro	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.17	0.10	0.04	-0.02	21	68%	0.27	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.17	0.00	0.03	7	107%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	15	70%	0.17	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	4	87%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	44%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.31	-0.15	-0.16	-0.00	14	20%	-0.16	1	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.77	0.77	0.05	0.66	-0.05	17	62%	0.88	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	20	57%	0.15	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.11,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.08	0.02	20	55%	0.18	4	-0.10	11	82%	0.08
Jordan Nwora	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	36%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	7	64%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre' Bembry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	25.5	14.7	29.7	1.8	37.5	135.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +23.1%

MIL +25.3%

MIL +2.9%

MIL +8.9%

MIA -10.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	14.8	12.5	14.5	112.3	114.3	110.8
season	14.9	13.7		112.0	112.2
opponent	14.8	14.9		109.4	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	13.8	14.4	17.0	14.8
MIL	12.6	15.0	10.9	11.5	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	44	44	0.65	-1.15	1.80	-0.02	23	-24	47	14.6	15.0	-0.32	12.7	12.3	0.45
Max Strus	50	48	0.60	-1.10	1.70	0.22	13	-14	27	15.1	14.6	0.49	12.2	12.7	-0.51
Dewayne Dedmon	21	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-3	5	15.0	14.8	0.28	13.0	12.3	0.75
Duncan Robinson	46	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	6	-13	14.5	15.1	-0.57	13.2	11.9	1.33
Tyler Herro	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.65	8	-9	17	14.8	14.8	0.02	12.7	11.8	0.98
Bam Adebayo	85	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	2	-5	14.8	15.0	-0.28	12.3	13.0	-0.75
Gabe Vincent	72	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	0	-1	15.1	14.2	0.95	11.8	13.9	-2.18
Jimmy Butler	77	76	-1.06	0.56	-1.61	-0.44	-21	20	-41	14.6	15.3	-0.63	12.6	12.1	0.45
P.J. Tucker	60	58	-1.12	0.62	-1.74	-0.56	-19	18	-37	14.8	14.8	0.03	12.2	12.7	-0.50

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	59	62	0.97	-0.47	1.45	0.62	12	-11	23	12.3	12.6	-0.29	15.5	13.9	1.56
Bobby Portis	71	70	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.62	10	-9	19	12.1	13.2	-1.09	15.1	14.3	0.82
Khris Middleton	79	78	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.59	8	-7	15	12.5	12.2	0.31	15.2	13.9	1.26
Jrue Holiday	83	86	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.43	12	-11	23	11.8	15.0	-3.26	15.4	12.4	2.98
Giannis Antetokounmpo	73	78	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-6	13	12.0	13.6	-1.62	15.0	14.3	0.73
Jordan Nwora	12	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	7	-13	14.7	12.2	2.48	10.3	15.4	-5.06
Grayson Allen	56	56	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.26	1	0	1	11.7	13.4	-1.69	14.7	14.9	-0.15
Jevon Carter	27	24	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.01	-10	11	-21	14.4	11.8	2.66	12.9	15.4	-2.46
Serge Ibaka	40	39	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	0.01	-14	15	-29	13.8	11.6	2.19	13.4	15.6	-2.19
DeAndre' Bembry	25	25	-0.45	0.95	-1.39	-0.01	-15	16	-31	13.6	12.1	1.54	15.2	14.7	0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.32,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.14,0.03,0.1,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 99, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.58,1	90.1%
MIA 98, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.27,1	89.6%
DAL 90, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.16,1	89.6%