NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	6.4 [520]		MVP	Caron Butler (DET): +13.3%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	262.2 [8]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -8.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.01	12	70%	0.15	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
James Ennis	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	5	64%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	52%	0.07	3	-0.07	7	43%	-0.04
Chris Andersen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	11	50%	0.02	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Henry Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	23%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,-0.07	0.08	-0.22	-0.07	18	62%	-0.06	2	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09	0.02	-0.10	0.01	7	56%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.01	3	129%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.01	11	68%	0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.10	0.00	16	47%	0.12	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.15	0.09	18	67%	0.46	7	-0.36	7	71%	-0.02
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	65%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	35%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	30.7	14.8	27.5	2.6	39.0	143.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +89.1%

MIA -12.8%

DET +4.1%

MIA -31.6%

DET +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.5	15.0	15.1	107.7	107.6	104.2
season	16.0	15.7		102.4	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	14.6	18.6	17.7	16.5
DET	17.0	13.6	17.4	12.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Ennis	34	35	0.31	-0.81	1.11	0.22	3	-4	7	17.4	16.0	1.36	12.9	16.2	-3.30
Chris Andersen	23	20	0.31	-0.81	1.11	-0.16	16	-17	33	14.5	17.2	-2.74	14.5	15.1	-0.58
Henry Walker	39	37	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.00	8	-9	17	16.5	16.5	-0.03	17.8	13.1	4.73
Udonis Haslem	25	28	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.15	1	-2	3	17.0	16.3	0.71	14.3	15.2	-0.96
Tyler Johnson	24	24	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.17	-2	1	-3	16.5	16.6	-0.09	12.9	15.7	-2.82
Mario Chalmers	45	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.81	15	-16	31	16.0	17.0	-1.04	15.3	14.6	0.74
Goran Dragic	69	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.51	-1	0	-1	16.2	17.5	-1.22	14.5	16.5	-2.09
Luol Deng	73	75	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.51	-9	8	-17	16.5	16.4	0.10	14.8	15.7	-0.92
Dwyane Wade	67	66	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.54	-9	8	-17	16.5	16.6	-0.08	15.6	13.3	2.24
Hassan Whiteside	56	57	-1.15	0.65	-1.79	-0.35	-27	26	-53	17.4	15.1	2.39	15.5	14.0	1.54

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	63	65	1.17	-0.67	1.83	0.46	24	-23	47	15.4	14.0	1.35	17.0	15.3	1.65
Reggie Jackson	73	72	0.95	-0.45	1.41	0.37	20	-19	39	14.2	17.7	-3.44	17.3	13.6	3.73
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	80	78	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.41	15	-14	29	14.7	16.4	-1.68	17.0	13.9	3.04
Anthony Tolliver	66	68	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.49	11	-10	21	15.4	13.8	1.60	16.5	16.6	-0.05
Tayshaun Prince	51	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.57	-8	9	-17	14.1	16.0	-1.84	15.6	17.6	-1.94
Shawne Williams	7	7	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.00	3	-2	5	9.9	15.4	-5.52	15.0	16.7	-1.65
Caron Butler	49	48	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	1	-1	16.4	13.3	3.15	17.2	15.7	1.48
Jodie Meeks	17	17	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.05	-15	16	-31	15.9	14.7	1.21	14.8	16.9	-2.17
John Lucas III	25	25	-0.52	1.02	-1.53	0.13	-22	23	-45	16.1	14.5	1.54	15.0	17.1	-2.11
Joel Anthony	29	26	-0.67	1.17	-1.83	0.01	-23	24	-47	14.0	15.4	-1.35	15.3	17.0	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 80, BOS 84	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.29,0.06,0.27,1	90.9%
HOU 75, SAS 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.42,1	90.0%
SAS 84, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.42,1	89.8%