NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	99		Excitement	8.6 [179]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +17.3%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	13.8 [191]		LVP	Rasual Butler (NOK): -9.8%

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,-0.02,0.16	0.05	0.11	0.01	15	62%	0.28	4	-0.12	12	75%	-0.02
Linton Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	73%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Marc Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	10	43%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Cedric Simmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.13,-0.09	0.04	-0.13	0.00	12	58%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1	0.02	-0.11	0.01	18	57%	0.02	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.05	0.00	7	94%	0.21	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.06
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,0.01,0.14	0.14	-0.01	0.17	0.02	25	53%	0.43	5	-0.29	5	100%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	69%	0.04	1	-0.01	10	70%	-0.09
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	14	52%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	12	62%	0.09	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.5	26.7	15.8	28.9	2.0	35.7	138.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.2%

NOK -3.8%

NOK -15.0%

MIA +23.9%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOK	MIA	NBA	NOK	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	15.5	15.4	110.0	113.5	104.5
season	16.0	16.0		102.8	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.3		104.3	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOK	17.8	16.2	14.8	18.1	16.7
MIA	11.7	17.3	17.4	16.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	31	30	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.18	-4	2	-6	15.4	17.4	-1.95	15.7	15.4	0.29
Cedric Simmons	10	10	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-4	6	15.5	16.8	-1.35	17.3	15.2	2.06
Marc Jackson	30	31	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-3	4	17.2	16.4	0.80	14.7	15.9	-1.22
Jannero Pargo	59	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.56	14	-16	30	16.3	17.5	-1.29	16.5	13.2	3.31
Desmond Mason	56	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	1	-4	16.8	16.5	0.37	16.3	14.2	2.05
Rasual Butler	76	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	3	-8	17.1	14.6	2.52	15.3	16.4	-1.14
Linton Johnson	36	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-3	4	16.0	17.2	-1.17	14.5	16.2	-1.69
Chris Paul	80	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	2	-6	16.8	15.5	1.35	15.2	17.3	-2.06
Tyson Chandler	72	69	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.54	-12	10	-22	17.2	14.6	2.61	14.9	17.4	-2.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	57	60	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.47	16	-14	30	15.3	15.8	-0.58	17.5	15.2	2.30
Dwyane Wade	79	80	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.45	10	-8	18	15.3	17.2	-1.95	16.6	17.4	-0.79
Jason Kapono	33	34	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.58	3	-1	4	15.0	15.8	-0.80	18.1	15.9	2.18
Jason Williams	71	72	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.29	7	-5	12	15.6	14.9	0.66	16.9	15.8	1.15
James Posey	59	57	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.54	-11	13	-24	15.8	14.8	1.01	16.5	17.0	-0.43
Antoine Walker	14	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	5	-8	15.8	15.4	0.37	15.5	16.9	-1.36
Dorell Wright	40	43	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	3	-4	15.5	15.4	0.14	16.8	16.6	0.17
Udonis Haslem	58	58	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.13	1	1	0	15.2	16.0	-0.76	16.4	17.2	-0.71
Michael Doleac	17	17	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	5	-8	15.2	15.5	-0.29	15.2	17.0	-1.81
Gary Payton	17	16	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.04	-9	11	-20	17.1	15.1	2.03	14.1	17.3	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 88, CHH 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.23,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.29,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.42,1	91.5%
LAL 90, MEM 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.63,1	91.2%
BOS 98, VAN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.09,0.58,1	91.1%