NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	12.9 [12]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (MIA): +55.0%
Charlotte Hornets	107		Comeback	41.5 [68]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -58.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.55	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0,0,0.14,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.55	0.13	0.44	0.01	16	74%	0.73	3	-0.18	2	50%	-0.06
Duncan Robinson	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24	0.15	0.14	0.05	13	72%	0.28	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Omer Yurtseven	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0	-0.07	0.07	-0.01	12	44%	0.07	3	-0.07	10	50%	-0.04
P.J. Tucker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.08	0.00	12	58%	0.05	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	7	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	-0.58	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33,-0.45,-0.45,-0.51,-0.51,-0.51,-0.57,-0.63,-0.75,-0.75,-0.7,-0.58	-0.22	-0.37	-0.01	24	29%	-0.48	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.07

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.09	0.23	-0.00	16	59%	0.33	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.18
JT Thor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Bouknight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.10	-0.02	15	44%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	9	28%	-0.06	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	15	44%	0.02	3	-0.16	4	75%	-0.00
Miles Bridges	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.07,-0.24,-0.3,-0.3,-0.41,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32,-0.15	-0.15	0.06	-0.20	0.02	21	59%	0.24	4	-0.40	7	86%	0.01
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.15	-0.02	15	41%	-0.06	5	-0.17	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	27.6	1.8	28.9	14.4	30.6	2.4	28.8	0.3	15.7	0.8	16.1	167.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.1%

CHA -22.9%

MIA +4.7%

MIA +32.3%

CHA -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	16.3	15.2	14.5	99.1	98.2	110.8
season	14.9	14.0		112.0	112.9
opponent	14.5	14.9		112.8	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.0	17.9	13.8	17.8	18.8	16.3
CHA	15.0	14.8	15.0	15.6	16.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Tucker	83	81	1.08	-0.58	1.65	0.28	27	-23	50	16.1	16.9	-0.74	15.9	13.1	2.72
Duncan Robinson	83	83	1.05	-0.55	1.59	0.28	26	-22	48	16.3	16.2	0.14	15.5	14.0	1.58
Jimmy Butler	98	95	0.96	-0.46	1.41	0.28	23	-19	42	16.1	18.0	-1.93	15.7	11.7	3.96
Bam Adebayo	83	82	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.36	19	-15	34	16.6	15.6	0.93	15.6	13.9	1.75
Kyle Lowry	88	86	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.41	10	-6	16	16.6	15.2	1.35	15.6	13.6	2.03
Omer Yurtseven	29	27	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	0.02	-15	19	-34	15.6	16.6	-0.93	13.9	15.6	-1.75
Max Strus	29	27	-0.51	1.01	-1.52	0.08	-20	24	-44	16.2	16.3	-0.14	13.4	15.7	-2.29
Haywood Highsmith	29	27	-0.62	1.12	-1.73	0.12	-25	29	-54	16.9	16.1	0.74	13.6	15.7	-2.04
Gabe Vincent	38	37	-0.66	1.16	-1.83	0.07	-25	29	-54	16.3	16.3	-0.07	12.9	16.3	-3.48

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Bouknight	15	14	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.07	14	-18	32	13.1	15.5	-2.36	18.1	16.1	2.09
JT Thor	29	30	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.10	5	-9	14	15.4	15.1	0.29	15.9	16.5	-0.52
Kelly Oubre Jr.	75	76	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.24	7	-11	18	14.1	17.6	-3.48	15.4	18.2	-2.77
Mason Plumlee	27	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.16	-13	9	-22	16.4	14.8	1.60	14.1	17.1	-2.99
Montrezl Harrell	79	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-9	14	14.8	16.2	-1.47	17.1	14.1	3.02
LaMelo Ball	69	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-5	6	15.7	14.3	1.37	17.8	13.6	4.22
P.J. Washington	90	93	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	-1	-2	15.0	15.9	-0.95	16.8	13.8	2.98
Terry Rozier	68	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	9	-22	15.9	14.0	1.91	15.6	17.5	-1.98
Miles Bridges	93	95	-0.98	0.48	-1.46	-0.31	-23	19	-42	15.6	12.9	2.68	15.8	19.4	-3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.86,0.79,0.55,0.37,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.55,0.43,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.57,0.42,0	88.2%
LAC 120, BKN 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.7,0.61,0.71,0.83,0.78,0.83,0.77,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.91,0.81,0.79,0.57,0.42,0	87.7%
LAL 120, SAS 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.62,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.79,0.55,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.42,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.33,0.17,0	87.3%