NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	6.4 [567]		MVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): +18.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	96		Comeback	1.4 [571]		LVP	Joel Embiid (PHI): -17.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.09,0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	16	70%	0.42	5	-0.24	5	60%	-0.01
P.J. Tucker	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	10	60%	0.11	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.06	0.01	16	57%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
KZ Okpala	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	47%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Omer Yurtseven	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Garrett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	12	50%	-0.05	6	-0.13	4	75%	-0.04

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.19	0.01	0.08	15	82%	0.18	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.07	0.02	18	60%	0.32	3	-0.20	4	75%	-0.04
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	7	47%	-0.04	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Matisse Thybulle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	5	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shake Milton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Joel Embiid	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.18	-0.18	0.03	-0.18	0.03	13	53%	-0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	2.4	26.5	14.5	23.2	2.8	33.2	132.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.2%

PHI -6.8%

MIA +28.3%

PHI -12.3%

MIA +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	16.2	15.5	14.5	111.0	105.5	110.8
season	14.9	15.2		112.0	112.4
opponent	14.6	14.9		109.8	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	15.4	17.0	16.6	16.2
PHI	15.6	17.3	15.8	13.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	73	72	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-4	13	16.4	15.1	1.38	15.5	15.4	0.08
Gabe Vincent	67	66	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.02	21	-16	37	15.8	17.2	-1.42	16.0	14.2	1.77
Kyle Lowry	73	72	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.40	5	0	5	16.3	15.7	0.55	15.4	15.9	-0.52
Dewayne Dedmon	57	59	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.10	14	-9	23	16.4	15.7	0.69	16.0	14.5	1.47
P.J. Tucker	74	74	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.37	-4	9	-13	16.1	16.2	-0.09	14.6	19.1	-4.47
KZ Okpala	27	26	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	2	1	16.1	16.2	-0.08	16.6	15.0	1.53
Omer Yurtseven	23	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	8	-11	16.3	16.1	0.13	15.6	15.4	0.17
Marcus Garrett	17	18	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	9	-13	15.8	16.3	-0.49	15.4	15.5	-0.12
Max Strus	44	45	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.33	-16	21	-37	15.9	16.4	-0.45	15.0	16.0	-1.04

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Joe	22	22	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-9	13	13.3	16.2	-2.92	16.6	16.0	0.56
Shake Milton	42	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.25	7	-12	19	14.2	16.6	-2.31	16.5	15.8	0.70
Paul Reed	9	8	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	2	-9	19.3	15.1	4.27	15.5	16.2	-0.73
Danny Green	53	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.51	11	-16	27	14.7	16.6	-1.93	16.5	15.7	0.73
Andre Drummond	21	20	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	7	-19	16.5	15.2	1.35	15.7	16.3	-0.60
Joel Embiid	69	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.46	7	-12	19	15.3	16.0	-0.62	16.3	15.7	0.60
Seth Curry	62	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-4	3	15.8	14.7	1.11	16.2	16.1	0.14
Tyrese Maxey	80	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-6	7	15.5	15.2	0.34	16.2	15.7	0.48
Matisse Thybulle	27	27	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.28	-23	18	-41	17.7	14.5	3.21	14.7	16.8	-2.13
Tobias Harris	70	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	7	-19	15.6	15.0	0.69	16.1	16.3	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.28,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.33,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, GSW 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.27,0	93.0%
SAC 126, TOR 124	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.24,0.2,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.27,0	92.3%
CLE 106, CHA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.42,0	92.3%