NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	8.0 [274]		MVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): +53.4%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	3.4 [433]		LVP	Reggie Bullock (DAL): -15.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.19	0.10	-0.01	19	80%	0.41	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Robert Williams III	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.11	0.00	8	76%	0.23	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.19,0.19,0.05	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	5	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	54%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Payton Pritchard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.14,0.14,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.16	-0.03	22	44%	0.03	1	-0.16	1	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.53	0.53	0.11	0.36	-0.07	21	72%	0.73	6	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.08	0.18	-0.00	13	62%	0.28	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Frank Ntilikina	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	8	39%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.10	-0.03	12	54%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.04,-0.16	-0.16	0.02	-0.18	0.01	11	59%	0.04	2	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	28.3	14.7	28.3	2.3	28.6	127.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +60.4%

BOS -9.6%

DAL +10.5%

BOS -14.2%

DAL +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.2	14.5	109.5	115.1	110.8
season	14.9	15.6		112.2	112.4
opponent	14.5	14.7		109.2	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.1	16.0	13.3	12.3	14.4
DAL	15.2	14.6	16.1	19.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Williams	9	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-5	7	15.8	14.3	1.49	17.5	16.1	1.39
Payton Pritchard	22	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-5	7	13.7	14.7	-0.98	16.0	16.3	-0.24
Al Horford	53	54	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	1	-5	14.0	14.9	-0.89	15.1	17.7	-2.57
Jayson Tatum	76	75	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.36	5	-8	13	14.3	15.0	-0.71	16.5	14.9	1.66
Robert Williams III	64	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-5	7	15.0	13.2	1.79	17.6	13.7	3.97
Dennis Schroder	78	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-3	3	14.3	15.1	-0.84	16.2	16.2	-0.01
Aaron Nesmith	43	42	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.07	-12	9	-21	14.9	14.0	0.91	13.8	18.2	-4.36
Marcus Smart	70	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-1	-1	14.9	13.1	1.78	16.9	14.4	2.50
Josh Richardson	60	61	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.40	-8	5	-13	13.7	15.7	-1.99	16.2	16.3	-0.13

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Doncic	65	68	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-7	17	17.1	14.3	2.78	14.6	13.9	0.76
Jalen Brunson	67	68	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.52	1	2	-1	16.0	16.8	-0.81	14.4	14.6	-0.28
Reggie Bullock	51	50	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.44	2	1	1	16.5	15.9	0.63	14.3	14.6	-0.36
Tim Hardaway Jr.	68	70	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	3	-3	16.2	16.2	-0.02	14.3	14.9	-0.61
Kristaps Porzingis	56	57	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.39	-4	7	-11	15.9	16.6	-0.70	14.1	14.9	-0.86
Willie Cauley-Stein	16	18	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	-4	11	15.1	16.5	-1.33	14.1	14.5	-0.46
Dorian Finney-Smith	59	60	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	-2	7	16.1	16.5	-0.48	14.6	14.1	0.55
Sterling Brown	14	15	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	3	-3	16.0	16.3	-0.27	14.9	14.3	0.52
Frank Ntilikina	28	27	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.10	-7	10	-17	14.3	17.1	-2.78	13.9	14.6	-0.76
Dwight Powell	41	42	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.14	1	2	-1	17.4	15.3	2.08	15.2	13.8	1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.89,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.62,0.63,0.33,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.8,0.75,0.71,0.43,0.58,1	91.0%
BOS 74, PHI 77	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.33,0.73,1	90.6%
SEA 74, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.84,1	90.4%