NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	9.7 [84]		MVP	Domantas Sabonis (IND): +36.1%
Indiana Pacers	108		Comeback	2.3 [384]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -35.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.25	0.01	0.24	0.01	8	61%	0.30	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Payton Pritchard	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	5	130%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.00	7	86%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.07
Tristan Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	7	44%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Daniel Theis	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.09	-0.01	13	64%	0.06	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Semi Ojeleye	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	6	41%	-0.04	1	-0.12	10	90%	0.03
Jayson Tatum	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.1,-0.36	-0.01	-0.36	-0.01	21	54%	-0.17	5	-0.19	4	100%	0.05

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.36	0.36	-0.04	0.39	-0.01	18	49%	0.46	4	-0.10	3	33%	-0.13
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	12	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	0.00	7	76%	0.15	1	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.1,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	20	60%	0.18	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	10	42%	0.07	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Warren	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.17	-0.17	0.04	-0.20	0.01	14	59%	0.04	2	-0.21	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	21.8	14.8	28.5	2.5	35.5	130.1
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +51.8%

BOS -2.7%

BOS -9.6%

BOS -6.8%

IND +17.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	13.9	14.2	14.4	104.9	104.9	111.3
season	14.5	13.6		112.8	111.5
opponent	14.4	14.5		111.2	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.0	14.9	14.6	13.3	13.9
IND	15.2	15.8	11.6	14.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	49	49	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.18	0	-1	1	13.6	14.2	-0.61	13.1	15.1	-1.99
Semi Ojeleye	26	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-1	1	14.7	13.7	1.07	14.3	14.1	0.20
Tristan Thompson	47	50	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-2	3	14.1	13.8	0.32	14.4	13.9	0.50
Robert Williams III	46	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	3	-7	13.8	14.0	-0.23	14.1	14.2	-0.17
Daniel Theis	31	34	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	4	-9	14.8	13.5	1.26	13.9	14.3	-0.47
Marcus Smart	68	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	3	-7	13.7	14.4	-0.63	14.1	14.3	-0.18
Jaylen Brown	72	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-2	3	13.5	14.9	-1.32	14.0	14.6	-0.61
Grant Williams	49	48	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.71	3	-4	7	13.5	14.4	-0.89	14.6	13.8	0.86
Jayson Tatum	75	78	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.45	-6	5	-11	14.2	13.1	1.12	14.1	14.4	-0.36

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Domantas Sabonis	87	86	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	-2	5	14.2	13.7	0.49	13.9	14.1	-0.23
Myles Turner	64	61	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	-2	5	14.1	14.3	-0.15	14.2	13.6	0.58
Aaron Holiday	48	46	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-13	27	13.2	15.0	-1.75	14.7	13.3	1.39
T.J. Warren	80	79	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.49	-2	3	-5	14.5	13.0	1.56	13.9	14.0	-0.09
Malcolm Brogdon	79	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.51	-4	5	-9	14.3	13.8	0.49	13.8	14.4	-0.57
Justin Holiday	60	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.38	-2	3	-5	14.0	14.4	-0.48	13.7	14.3	-0.56
T.J. McConnell	39	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	-1	3	14.2	14.2	-0.02	14.1	13.8	0.28
Doug McDermott	58	60	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.11	-9	10	-19	14.5	13.8	0.69	13.5	14.6	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.51,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.78,0.85,0.77,0.79,0.7,0.81,0.67,0.76,0.85,0.64,0.53,0.78,0.55,0.72,0.66,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 100, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.37,0.38,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.66,0.53,0.61,0.91,0.72,1	91.2%
SEA 104, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.41,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.62,0.57,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.54,0.78,0.64,0.79,0.57,0.73,1	90.4%
HOU 94, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.83,0.96,0.96,1	90.3%