NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	129		Excitement	12.3 [17]		MVP	Rudy Gay (SAS): +70.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	132		Comeback	4.2 [208]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -14.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.71	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.19,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.72,0.71,0.71	0.01	0.69	-0.00	19	47%	0.74	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33	0.13	0.21	0.00	12	70%	0.35	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.06	-0.01	6	58%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.12	0.05	0.08	7	74%	0.13	1	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Keldon Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	3	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	18	47%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Eubanks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Trey Lyles	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.19,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.02	-0.13	-0.01	19	50%	-0.09	3	-0.05	12	92%	0.08

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.14	0.23	-0.01	16	65%	0.40	1	-0.03	11	55%	-0.13
Alfonzo McKinnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.11	-0.00	6	83%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.01	14	59%	0.20	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.03	-0.01	13	68%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.08	0.10	-0.04	12	44%	0.12	4	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.09	0.01	11	48%	0.18	4	-0.15	7	86%	0.05
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Collin Sexton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	19	53%	0.16	7	-0.27	11	82%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	29.2	1.8	34.2	15.4	24.6	2.5	34.4	2.4	18.2	162.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -17.4%

CLE +20.0%

CLE +67.8%

SAS -30.9%

CLE +10.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CLE	NBA	SAS	CLE	NBA
this game	12.6	14.0	14.2	108.4	110.0	109.6
season	14.1	15.1		110.8	106.3
opponent	13.8	14.2		114.2	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	14.2	11.6	12.4	13.8	10.1	12.6
CLE	13.0	13.7	14.3	15.5	13.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	44	49	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.07	2	-5	7	12.1	12.9	-0.79	12.8	14.8	-1.95
Drew Eubanks	49	48	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.10	7	-10	17	12.9	12.4	0.52	14.9	13.4	1.47
Keldon Johnson	43	43	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.10	6	-9	15	12.3	12.8	-0.52	12.5	14.8	-2.38
Bryn Forbes	72	70	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-4	5	13.1	11.8	1.30	14.3	13.6	0.74
Derrick White	59	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.09	-7	4	-11	11.8	13.4	-1.55	12.3	15.7	-3.38
Dejounte Murray	66	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.42	3	-6	9	12.7	12.5	0.22	15.3	12.4	2.85
Rudy Gay	81	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	3	-9	12.5	12.8	-0.30	13.5	15.2	-1.68
DeMar DeRozan	90	92	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.29	-8	5	-13	13.0	11.3	1.68	14.5	12.4	2.04
Trey Lyles	91	88	-1.22	0.72	-1.93	-0.84	-13	10	-23	12.6	12.8	-0.23	14.8	11.7	3.14

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	88	90	1.43	-0.93	2.37	1.02	14	-11	25	14.3	13.2	1.05	12.6	12.6	0.08
Andre Drummond	70	72	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.30	18	-15	33	14.6	13.2	1.39	13.3	11.6	1.72
Larry Nance Jr.	99	95	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	14.2	13.0	1.20	12.6	12.8	-0.28
Matthew Dellavedova	101	99	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	4	-5	14.2	12.8	1.37	12.3	14.1	-1.79
Collin Sexton	92	91	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.11	1	2	-1	13.5	15.6	-2.06	12.7	12.4	0.24
Tristan Thompson	20	18	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.15	-7	10	-17	14.2	13.9	0.31	11.9	12.7	-0.79
Alfonzo McKinnie	44	44	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.08	-9	12	-21	13.4	14.4	-0.99	13.0	12.4	0.58
Cedi Osman	86	86	-0.55	1.05	-1.61	-0.44	-4	7	-11	13.5	15.2	-1.69	12.3	13.4	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.63,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.36,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.75,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 106, PHX 115	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.28,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.67,0.58,0.5,0.45,0.64,0.97,1,1	88.8%
DEN 105, IND 109	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.78,0.53,0.64,0.45,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.79,0.77,0.74,1	88.1%
TOR 116, MIL 125	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.33,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.55,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.96,1	87.2%