NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	123		Excitement	13.5 [8]		MVP	Seth Curry (DAL): +27.3%
Dallas Mavericks	127		Comeback	3.8 [431]		LVP	Lonzo Ball (NOP): -9.3%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Frank Jackson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.07	0.00	7	80%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nicolo Melli	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.13	0.18	-0.02	9	17%	0.15	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.06	0.01	0.05	0.01	18	51%	0.16	2	-0.10	5	60%	-0.07
Derrick Favors	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Brandon Ingram	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.26,0.27,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	22	57%	0.12	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
Jaxson Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08	-0.02	-0.09	-0.02	19	50%	0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	-0.09	0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.01,-0.09,-0.09	0.12	-0.20	0.02	19	66%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.12	0.16	0.00	12	81%	0.44	3	-0.17	2	50%	-0.03
Luka Doncic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,0.26,0.26	0.26	-0.02	0.28	0.01	20	57%	0.43	7	-0.18	13	62%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.14,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.05	0.14	-0.01	5	83%	0.28	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.01	0.02	28	58%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	15	53%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.06
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	8	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.2	3.5	25.3	14.7	28.2	0.8	33.2	1.8	13.8	146.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +60.0%

DAL +25.7%

NOP -21.5%

NOP -11.1%

NOP -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DAL	NBA	NOP	DAL	NBA
this game	12.9	15.3	14.2	108.8	112.4	109.6
season	13.4	14.5		109.9	115.2
opponent	14.1	14.2		111.3	111.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOP	12.9	13.0	13.6	11.6	14.5	12.9
DAL	14.3	14.1	17.0	15.7	15.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Ingram	85	86	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.09	8	-12	20	13.0	12.5	0.45	15.8	13.6	2.25
Nicolo Melli	56	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.18	-10	6	-16	13.5	12.3	1.20	14.3	16.2	-1.88
Jaxson Hayes	8	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	2	-8	14.5	12.8	1.75	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Jrue Holiday	81	82	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-9	14	12.2	14.5	-2.31	15.1	15.7	-0.61
E'Twaun Moore	34	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	5	-14	13.7	12.5	1.23	14.6	15.5	-0.89
Derrick Favors	66	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.58	10	-14	24	12.8	13.0	-0.18	16.4	13.8	2.56
Zion Williamson	79	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.34	1	-5	6	12.2	14.4	-2.20	15.1	15.6	-0.53
Frank Jackson	47	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-2	0	12.4	13.2	-0.84	15.4	15.2	0.19
Josh Hart	26	28	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	12	-28	14.0	12.5	1.46	14.2	15.6	-1.40
Lonzo Ball	83	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-3	2	13.1	12.3	0.83	15.5	14.6	0.87

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Seth Curry	75	78	1.00	-0.50	1.50	0.47	18	-14	32	15.6	14.6	1.07	13.5	11.4	2.14
Kristaps Porzingis	94	95	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-2	8	15.5	14.1	1.39	13.3	10.4	2.96
Tim Hardaway Jr.	84	85	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.49	-1	5	-6	15.3	15.3	-0.01	12.5	14.0	-1.45
Delon Wright	54	53	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-7	18	14.8	15.7	-0.97	12.8	13.0	-0.23
Maxi Kleber	87	85	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.41	-4	8	-12	15.3	15.2	0.05	12.6	13.6	-1.02
Luka Doncic	88	88	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.40	-5	9	-14	15.6	14.0	1.68	12.4	14.4	-1.96
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	3	4	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	1	2	13.0	15.3	-2.33	13.5	12.9	0.65
Dorian Finney-Smith	21	22	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	5	-6	14.3	15.5	-1.14	12.6	12.9	-0.35
Willie Cauley-Stein	35	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	6	-8	15.4	15.2	0.24	11.5	13.5	-2.01
Courtney Lee	24	21	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	-0.28	-5	9	-14	13.8	15.7	-1.82	15.3	12.3	3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.69,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.63,0.31,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 96, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.98,1	90.9%
SAS 107, NYK 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.65,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.77,0.98,1	90.2%
POR 87, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.69,1	89.2%