NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	113		Excitement	9.2 [151]		MVP	Terrence Ross (ORL): +38.2%
San Antonio Spurs	114		Comeback	6.0 [268]		LVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): -14.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.24,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.17	0.23	0.02	12	72%	0.38	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Michael Carter-Williams	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.01	5	70%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	9	60%	0.11	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Markelle Fultz	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,0.02	-0.04	0.07	0.01	10	50%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
James Ennis III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	5	39%	-0.02	3	-0.10	8	37%	-0.07
Nikola Vucevic	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	16	47%	0.02	5	-0.17	2	100%	0.03
Evan Fournier	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.29,0.21,0.1,-0.15	0.11	-0.26	0.00	16	68%	-0.04	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Lyles	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.13	0.00	13	71%	0.29	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.24	0.24	0.00	0.24	0.00	11	59%	0.44	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	69%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	4	100%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	10	75%	0.11	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13	-0.13	0.08	-0.18	0.02	12	73%	-0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.6	27.4	15.3	27.5	2.4	33.5	131.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +19.0%

ORL -1.5%

SAS +12.6%

SAS +14.8%

SAS +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	13.9	14.3	14.2	110.8	111.8	109.6
season	14.7	14.1		107.1	110.8
opponent	14.2	14.2		112.0	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.3	14.9	12.9	11.8	13.9
SAS	14.3	12.8	15.4	14.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	39	39	0.49	-0.99	1.47	-0.07	19	-20	39	14.0	13.8	0.13	14.9	14.0	0.86
Mo Bamba	23	23	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.11	11	-12	23	14.5	13.7	0.81	15.0	14.2	0.85
Michael Carter-Williams	40	40	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.22	19	-20	39	13.7	14.0	-0.23	14.5	14.2	0.34
James Ennis III	57	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	0	-1	14.2	13.4	0.80	14.3	14.4	-0.14
Terrence Ross	68	68	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.36	11	-12	23	13.8	14.1	-0.25	14.6	13.8	0.82
Nikola Vucevic	78	78	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.43	-12	11	-23	13.8	14.1	-0.30	14.3	14.5	-0.15
Aaron Gordon	79	79	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.58	-12	11	-23	13.7	14.5	-0.81	14.2	15.0	-0.85
Evan Fournier	63	63	-0.99	0.49	-1.47	-0.40	-20	19	-39	13.8	14.0	-0.13	14.0	14.9	-0.86
Markelle Fultz	63	63	-0.99	0.49	-1.47	-0.40	-20	19	-39	13.8	14.0	-0.13	14.0	14.9	-0.86

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	71	71	1.06	-0.56	1.62	0.47	20	-19	39	14.2	14.8	-0.62	13.7	14.2	-0.48
Bryn Forbes	53	53	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.56	7	-6	13	13.7	15.0	-1.26	13.4	14.4	-0.95
Trey Lyles	85	83	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.29	14	-13	27	14.3	14.4	-0.08	13.7	14.9	-1.30
Rudy Gay	63	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.55	-6	7	-13	14.0	14.9	-0.90	14.4	13.0	1.44
Derrick White	52	51	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	7	-13	14.9	13.8	1.14	14.2	13.6	0.65
Jakob Poeltl	9	9	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.12	9	-8	17	12.9	14.5	-1.59	16.9	13.6	3.29
Drew Eubanks	34	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	3	-5	14.9	14.1	0.76	13.6	14.1	-0.48
Patty Mills	43	44	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	3	-5	14.2	14.5	-0.27	14.8	13.2	1.55
Dejounte Murray	67	66	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	1	-1	14.5	14.0	0.48	13.1	15.3	-2.18
Lonnie Walker IV	21	22	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	0.02	-16	17	-33	14.3	14.3	-0.01	14.9	13.6	1.24
Marco Belinelli	12	12	-0.46	0.96	-1.43	-0.08	-13	14	-27	16.9	14.0	2.92	12.1	14.1	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.79,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.89,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.23,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.15,0.14,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 80, BOS 85	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.47,0.62,0.57,0.31,0.42,1	89.9%
IND 93, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.78,0.72,0.57,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.32,0.16,0.43,0.9,1	88.4%
WAS 96, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.27,0.4,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	87.9%