NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	93		Excitement	8.2 [221]		MVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): +22.6%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	7.3 [144]		LVP	Metta World Peace (IND): -26.6%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	4	87%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	59%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Foster	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	12	55%	-0.00	3	-0.15	9	67%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.18	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.21,-0.18	-0.03	-0.15	-0.01	16	51%	-0.05	1	-0.12	11	91%	0.04
Reggie Miller	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.19	-0.04	-0.14	0.01	7	50%	-0.11	1	-0.08	8	100%	0.06
Metta World Peace	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27	-0.19	-0.10	-0.02	10	25%	-0.16	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.05	-0.03	18	74%	0.31	2	-0.09	6	0%	-0.06
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Sundov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	29	48%	0.08	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.02
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	8	44%	-0.06	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Bremer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.24,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	13	40%	-0.10	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	28.0	15.5	24.4	2.5	36.4	136.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +59.9%

IND -36.6%

IND -3.1%

BOS +24.3%

BOS +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	BOS	NBA	IND	BOS	NBA
this game	14.4	16.9	15.5	101.1	106.5	101.6
season	15.4	15.6		102.2	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.9	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	17.3	14.2	12.3	14.0	14.4
BOS	17.0	16.4	19.0	15.4	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	42	41	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.04	11	-16	27	14.3	14.5	-0.22	17.3	16.6	0.67
Brad Miller	53	52	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.19	4	-9	13	14.6	14.1	0.57	17.8	15.8	1.99
Jeff Foster	6	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	0	-5	10.7	14.6	-3.97	13.7	17.2	-3.48
Erick Strickland	48	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.30	7	-12	19	13.9	14.9	-1.01	16.4	17.4	-0.98
Al Harrington	72	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.40	2	-7	9	14.1	15.4	-1.37	16.5	18.3	-1.76
Jamaal Tinsley	43	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	7	-19	14.7	14.1	0.60	17.1	16.7	0.36
Metta World Peace	74	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	2	-9	14.4	14.4	-0.08	17.0	16.8	0.20
Reggie Miller	53	55	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.58	-8	3	-11	15.0	13.5	1.51	16.7	17.3	-0.58
Jermaine O'Neal	69	69	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.47	-17	12	-29	14.6	13.8	0.74	17.1	16.4	0.65

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	58	58	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.38	16	-11	27	16.9	17.0	-0.07	14.9	13.6	1.30
Vin Baker	43	44	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-5	15	16.8	17.0	-0.25	15.3	13.5	1.84
Paul Pierce	85	85	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	17.1	15.1	1.93	14.2	16.6	-2.37
Antoine Walker	83	84	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.26	8	-3	11	16.4	21.3	-4.89	14.4	13.7	0.69
J.R. Bremer	68	68	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	3	-1	16.5	18.0	-1.51	14.7	13.4	1.36
Kedrick Brown	27	28	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.09	-1	6	-7	16.7	17.0	-0.36	14.1	14.5	-0.44
Tony Delk	27	27	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.08	-1	6	-7	18.3	16.4	1.89	13.7	14.6	-0.91
Walter McCarty	43	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	9	-13	17.5	16.4	1.15	13.6	15.0	-1.43
Bruno Sundov	26	25	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.04	-10	15	-25	17.2	16.8	0.32	13.4	14.8	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.78,0.72,0.57,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.32,0.16,0.43,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 110, DET 114	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.29,0.68,0.92,1	91.4%
ATL 99, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.57,0.41,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.46,0.61,0.45,0.33,0.74,1	90.5%
NYK 117, IND 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.77,0.78,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.57,0.59,1	90.1%