NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	80		Excitement	8.3 [193]		MVP	Vitaly Potapenko (BOS): +8.7%
Boston Celtics	85		Comeback	3.9 [520]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -35.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	12	52%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Will Solomon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	10	33%	-0.08	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Brevin Knight	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	4	33%	-0.01	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.28,-0.24,-0.13,-0.13	-0.22	0.03	-0.06	17	31%	-0.04	5	-0.09	5	100%	0.06
Shane Battier	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19	-0.01	-0.16	0.02	17	58%	-0.03	4	-0.15	4	100%	0.05
Stromile Swift	-0.30	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.3	-0.12	-0.19	0.00	7	36%	-0.10	2	-0.21	8	50%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	5	83%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	11	45%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	0.01	-0.03	12	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	33%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.05
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.36,-0.31,-0.24	-0.24	-0.12	-0.15	-0.03	22	48%	-0.02	6	-0.22	6	83%	0.11
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.36	-0.36	-0.05	-0.31	-0.00	16	53%	-0.22	4	-0.13	6	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.7	27.3	15.5	24.2	1.8	33.3	130.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -3.5%

BOS +5.7%

BOS +51.9%

MEM -2.9%

MEM -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	BOS	NBA	MEM	BOS	NBA
this game	15.1	14.6	15.6	82.5	87.6	102.3
season	15.7	15.0		96.0	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.2		98.8	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.4	14.6	15.4	14.9	15.1
BOS	13.4	15.4	14.6	15.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	54	55	0.38	-0.88	1.26	-0.09	16	-21	37	15.4	14.7	0.61	14.6	14.6	0.02
Brevin Knight	48	48	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.13	11	-16	27	15.2	15.0	0.25	15.0	14.2	0.73
Will Solomon	15	14	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	3	-11	15.6	15.0	0.61	11.8	15.1	-3.30
Shane Battier	71	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-9	13	14.9	15.7	-0.78	14.7	14.5	0.17
Pau Gasol	77	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	15.1	15.0	0.10	14.6	14.7	-0.16
Grant Long	81	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	3	-11	15.1	14.8	0.32	14.7	14.3	0.38
Jason Williams	77	78	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.34	-14	9	-23	15.0	15.5	-0.53	14.6	14.7	-0.09
Stromile Swift	62	60	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-0.31	-22	17	-39	14.9	15.4	-0.50	14.9	14.2	0.72

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	65	65	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-7	19	13.9	16.1	-2.17	15.2	14.8	0.45
Antoine Walker	86	86	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.26	11	-6	17	14.4	16.0	-1.57	14.6	18.5	-3.91
Eric Williams	56	54	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	0	5	15.6	13.2	2.45	15.6	14.5	1.11
Kenny Anderson	81	81	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-3	11	14.7	14.4	0.28	14.9	15.8	-0.87
Tony Battie	65	67	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	2	1	14.8	14.3	0.44	15.0	15.2	-0.22
Vitaly Potapenko	31	29	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	3	-1	14.8	14.5	0.24	15.4	14.9	0.47
Erick Strickland	31	31	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	8	-11	15.9	14.0	1.86	16.6	14.4	2.25
Milt Palacio	14	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.12	-9	14	-23	14.1	14.7	-0.54	15.5	15.0	0.44
Joe Johnson	56	59	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.14	-4	9	-13	13.8	15.8	-1.99	14.3	16.2	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.47,0.62,0.57,0.31,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 109, ORL 113	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.57,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.58,1	91.9%
DEN 92, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.74,0.66,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.47,0.71,0.57,0.42,1	91.6%
MIL 83, LAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.78,0.62,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.52,0.45,0.63,0.55,0.31,1	90.5%