NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	8.0 [276]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +22.9%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	2.5 [412]		LVP	Bryn Forbes (SAS): -12.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.10	-0.00	13	61%	0.21	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.03	13	68%	0.18	2	-0.12	5	100%	0.03
Kendrick Nunn	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	14	64%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Kelly Olynyk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	7	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.1	0.02	-0.12	-0.00	14	47%	-0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Duncan Robinson	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	0.03	-0.11	0.03	11	55%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.11	-0.03	15	64%	0.27	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.12	0.03	16	53%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.06
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	6	67%	0.12	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.01	11	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.03	6	75%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	6	58%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	8	39%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	5	15%	-0.09	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.5	28.2	14.8	28.0	1.8	33.3	133.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +17.9%

SAS +18.0%

SAS +4.7%

SAS +8.5%

SAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	15.3	14.2	107.4	113.8	109.6
season	14.7	14.1		111.7	110.8
opponent	14.2	14.5		112.0	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	13.4	15.1	16.5	15.2
SAS	16.1	13.7	15.5	16.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	71	72	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.33	12	-17	29	14.9	16.0	-1.11	15.9	13.3	2.60
Duncan Robinson	68	69	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.47	16	-21	37	14.8	16.1	-1.32	15.8	13.9	1.89
James Johnson	29	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.21	-9	4	-13	15.6	15.0	0.60	15.6	15.2	0.48
Kendrick Nunn	70	70	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.34	6	-11	17	14.9	15.8	-0.91	15.9	13.5	2.37
Kelly Olynyk	16	16	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.10	-13	8	-21	15.2	15.2	0.02	12.6	15.9	-3.31
Meyers Leonard	57	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.50	7	-12	19	15.1	15.3	-0.16	15.3	15.3	-0.01
Goran Dragic	47	45	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	8	-21	15.5	14.8	0.72	14.9	15.7	-0.85
Tyler Herro	20	19	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	9	-23	15.7	15.0	0.74	13.5	15.8	-2.30
Jimmy Butler	66	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.56	4	-9	13	15.0	15.6	-0.60	15.2	15.6	-0.48
Derrick Jones Jr.	31	29	-0.51	0.00	-0.51	0.11	-21	16	-37	16.4	14.6	1.76	14.6	15.6	-1.09

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	49	50	1.05	-0.55	1.59	0.43	21	-16	37	14.4	16.3	-1.84	16.3	13.9	2.39
Patty Mills	55	56	0.99	-0.49	1.49	0.50	17	-12	29	14.9	15.8	-0.92	15.6	14.6	0.94
Marco Belinelli	41	42	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-6	17	15.0	15.5	-0.55	15.5	14.9	0.51
Jakob Poeltl	25	25	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	-6	17	14.0	15.8	-1.78	15.7	15.0	0.75
LaMarcus Aldridge	69	70	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.37	-6	11	-17	15.8	14.0	1.78	15.0	15.7	-0.75
Lonnie Walker IV	38	40	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	-5	15	15.9	14.9	1.07	15.1	15.2	-0.16
DeMar DeRozan	72	73	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.36	-7	12	-19	15.8	13.8	2.01	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Bryn Forbes	34	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.02	-6	11	-17	14.6	15.7	-1.04	14.6	15.5	-0.81
Trey Lyles	42	40	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.12	-10	15	-25	15.3	15.3	-0.08	15.1	15.2	-0.12
Dejounte Murray	45	45	-0.55	1.05	-1.59	-0.08	-16	21	-37	16.3	14.4	1.84	13.9	16.3	-2.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.57,0.72,0.68,0.57,0.53,0.34,0.38,0.85,0.97,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 89, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.85,0.77,0.91,1	90.6%
DET 101, DAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.73,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.72,0.94,0.98,1	90.2%
IND 92, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.44,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.55,0.64,0.95,0.9,1	90.0%