NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	89		Excitement	7.5 [329]		MVP	Vince Carter (ORL): +23.1%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	2.8 [881]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -22.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	13	62%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.00	15	70%	0.21	1	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Josh Powell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	60%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jason Collins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Etan Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	11	47%	0.00	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	6	58%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.22	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22	-0.06	-0.15	0.01	15	42%	-0.16	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.15,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.12	0.01	12	66%	0.25	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	-0.00	5	80%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	-0.01	-0.06	20	53%	0.20	3	-0.11	11	64%	-0.05
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	0.00	12	39%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	29.4	16.7	25.1	1.7	33.2	132.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +33.1%

ATL -5.5%

ORL +3.2%

ORL +25.0%

ATL -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.9	15.5	98.9	101.1	105.7
season	16.5	15.2		104.0	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.5		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.8	15.4	17.8	18.1	16.7
ORL	15.5	14.0	14.3	16.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	42	43	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.24	15	-19	34	16.0	17.3	-1.29	15.7	14.2	1.48
Zaza Pachulia	27	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.21	-8	4	-12	18.4	16.0	2.34	15.5	14.7	0.76
Al Horford	54	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.53	15	-19	34	15.4	18.8	-3.41	16.0	13.5	2.51
Etan Thomas	11	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	2	-8	17.3	16.7	0.61	11.2	15.4	-4.26
Mike Bibby	60	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.53	10	-14	24	15.9	18.3	-2.35	15.1	14.5	0.58
Josh Powell	25	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.11	-12	8	-20	19.4	15.7	3.75	14.4	15.1	-0.69
Jeff Teague	25	26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.07	-11	7	-18	19.1	15.8	3.30	14.2	15.2	-1.03
Joe Johnson	77	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-4	4	16.7	17.0	-0.31	15.4	12.3	3.06
Jamal Crawford	63	64	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.16	-15	11	-26	16.6	17.1	-0.59	14.5	15.8	-1.27
Josh Smith	66	68	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.42	-8	4	-12	16.5	17.3	-0.76	14.2	17.1	-2.96

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	50	51	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.43	9	-5	14	14.4	15.6	-1.17	17.1	16.3	0.84
Jason Williams	44	44	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.29	10	-6	16	14.8	15.1	-0.31	17.1	16.4	0.74
Rashard Lewis	61	60	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.48	0	4	-4	14.5	15.8	-1.27	16.1	17.9	-1.80
Dwight Howard	66	66	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.43	-2	6	-8	14.6	15.8	-1.22	16.2	18.1	-1.84
JJ Redick	52	49	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.34	0	4	-4	15.3	14.4	0.86	15.9	17.7	-1.79
Brandon Bass	36	34	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.12	12	-8	20	14.8	15.0	-0.17	17.9	16.0	1.89
Quentin Richardson	36	35	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	1	2	15.2	14.8	0.43	17.3	16.4	0.90
Marcin Gortat	38	36	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	-1	6	16.1	14.1	1.99	17.3	16.3	1.00
Chris Duhon	48	46	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	10	-16	15.1	14.8	0.31	16.4	17.1	-0.74
Ryan Anderson	29	29	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.19	-11	15	-26	15.1	14.8	0.30	17.0	16.6	0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.85,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 77, MIN 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.45,0.53,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	91.6%
CHA 126, WAS 130	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.49,0.4,0.81,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	91.5%
NOK 94, SEA 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.71,0.65,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.79,0.89,1,1	91.5%