NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	112		Excitement	9.8 [104]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +27.7%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	3.6 [386]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -21.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Lamb	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19	0.08	0.15	0.03	11	64%	0.22	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Myles Turner	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	9	72%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	-0.00	-0.04	8	69%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Edmond Sumner	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	7	79%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	0.00	10	70%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Warren	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.05	0.03	12	55%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.08
Goga Bitadze	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Domantas Sabonis	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	11	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.05,-0.19	0.05	-0.24	-0.00	15	53%	-0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.16	0.12	0.00	11	82%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.12	0.14	0.02	10	82%	0.29	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,0.18	0.18	-0.03	0.21	-0.00	14	50%	0.33	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.00	0.00	4	112%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	11	45%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.04	-0.04	0.09	-0.13	-0.00	14	61%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	9	35%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.02,-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.18	0.03	11	54%	0.00	4	-0.21	15	93%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	23.5	14.8	28.0	1.5	28.9	122.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.4%

MIA +6.2%

MIA +67.7%

IND -43.3%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	15.8	14.2	115.5	117.7	109.6
season	14.4	14.7		108.7	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.4		108.9	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.8	14.2	14.5	13.8	14.1
MIA	15.6	15.8	15.5	16.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Holiday	58	58	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-5	9	14.0	14.2	-0.17	16.9	14.0	2.85
Goga Bitadze	9	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-1	1	15.0	14.0	0.99	12.6	16.1	-3.52
Justin Holiday	63	61	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	1	-3	14.0	14.4	-0.38	15.4	16.4	-1.07
Myles Turner	51	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.43	7	-8	15	13.8	14.4	-0.59	16.6	14.7	1.85
T.J. McConnell	40	39	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	4	-9	14.5	13.8	0.72	13.9	17.0	-3.12
Domantas Sabonis	63	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	4	-9	14.3	13.6	0.70	15.9	15.4	0.48
Jeremy Lamb	58	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-5	9	13.7	14.7	-0.94	16.9	13.8	3.11
Doug McDermott	43	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	4	-9	14.1	14.1	-0.06	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Edmond Sumner	38	36	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	4	-9	14.3	13.9	0.39	14.0	16.8	-2.84
T.J. Warren	62	62	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.59	2	-3	5	14.1	14.1	0.03	15.8	15.6	0.25

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	65	66	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.51	3	-2	5	15.7	15.8	-0.13	14.3	13.8	0.48
Kendrick Nunn	53	55	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.45	3	-2	5	16.7	14.5	2.20	14.1	14.1	-0.03
Bam Adebayo	70	72	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	-1	3	16.3	14.4	1.87	14.2	13.8	0.35
Goran Dragic	59	60	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	0	1	15.5	16.2	-0.71	14.3	13.8	0.43
Kelly Olynyk	33	34	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.02	12	-11	23	14.1	16.6	-2.57	15.3	13.4	1.88
Derrick Jones Jr.	57	56	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	4	-7	15.2	16.6	-1.41	13.8	14.5	-0.71
Tyler Herro	49	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	0	1	14.0	17.6	-3.53	14.0	14.2	-0.21
Duncan Robinson	55	55	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.15	-6	7	-13	16.7	14.5	2.16	13.9	14.4	-0.49
Meyers Leonard	39	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.12	-8	9	-17	17.1	14.8	2.32	13.2	14.7	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.59,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.47,0.31,0.22,0.45,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 92, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.74,1	90.9%
WAS 101, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.8,0.84,0.64,0.71,0.46,0.38,0.22,0.57,0.58,1	90.8%
LAL 102, IND 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.56,0.58,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.43,0.42,1	89.6%