NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	101		Excitement	9.8 [84]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +36.5%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	5.2 [362]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -30.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Ruffin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.05	0.01	22	60%	0.11	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	46%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Juan Dixon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Etan Thomas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	4	57%	-0.03	2	-0.08	6	33%	-0.14
Brendan Haywood	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	6	29%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Jarvis Hayes	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	13	46%	-0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.27,-0.04,-0.04,-0.31	-0.08	-0.23	0.00	22	48%	-0.27	1	-0.04	18	72%	-0.26

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.37	0.37	0.23	0.11	-0.02	18	82%	0.36	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.01	9	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.06
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	86%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	6	85%	0.12	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	5	30%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.12	0.01	19	54%	-0.01	1	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	0.01	-0.00	10	35%	0.03	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.33,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.32,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.33,-0.42,-0.22	-0.22	-0.26	0.03	-0.02	12	31%	-0.04	7	-0.18	8	100%	0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.3	25.6	16.5	25.9	1.8	45.3	143.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.9%

ORL +38.1%

WAS -12.0%

WAS -6.4%

ORL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.0	15.5	103.1	109.1	104.0
season	14.7	14.3		104.7	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.1	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.3	19.0	15.7	13.7	15.2
ORL	12.0	15.2	16.3	13.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	42	43	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.13	-1	-6	5	14.7	15.6	-0.92	13.7	14.3	-0.59
Antawn Jamison	77	78	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.19	8	-15	23	15.0	15.9	-0.82	14.2	13.5	0.64
Brendan Haywood	34	34	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-7	7	15.1	15.3	-0.24	13.8	14.2	-0.40
Steve Blake	13	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-4	1	19.8	14.5	5.34	15.2	13.8	1.38
Juan Dixon	16	17	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.17	-11	4	-15	16.4	15.0	1.46	10.1	14.8	-4.72
Gilbert Arenas	89	90	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-11	15	14.7	20.4	-5.76	14.1	13.2	0.89
Anthony Peeler	36	36	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-8	9	14.3	15.8	-1.48	15.4	13.3	2.09
Jared Jeffries	68	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	4	-15	15.6	14.4	1.17	13.9	14.4	-0.57
Etan Thomas	57	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.32	-11	4	-15	15.5	14.8	0.79	14.6	13.3	1.20
Jarvis Hayes	58	60	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.39	-11	4	-15	15.2	15.2	-0.06	13.9	14.3	-0.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	55	54	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.40	13	-6	19	13.8	14.3	-0.48	16.3	13.8	2.49
Steve Francis	74	74	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.25	9	-2	11	14.0	14.2	-0.17	14.9	16.1	-1.21
Dwight Howard	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.31	7	0	7	14.6	13.0	1.64	14.4	16.8	-2.46
Pat Garrity	37	35	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	3	1	13.1	14.6	-1.52	16.7	14.4	2.24
Grant Hill	67	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	4	-1	14.2	13.7	0.46	15.4	14.8	0.69
Tony Battie	64	66	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	0	7	15.1	12.1	2.96	16.2	13.1	3.10
Jameer Nelson	21	21	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	4	-1	14.1	14.0	0.08	15.9	15.0	0.88
Stacey Augmon	9	10	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	6	-5	11.6	14.3	-2.72	11.8	15.6	-3.80
Andrew DeClercq	30	28	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	14	-21	13.0	14.5	-1.43	14.1	15.6	-1.50
Doug Christie	74	73	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.23	-5	12	-17	13.9	14.6	-0.71	14.3	17.9	-3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.8,0.84,0.64,0.71,0.46,0.38,0.22,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 92, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.74,1	91.8%
NOP 102, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.92,0.77,0.74,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.68,0.85,1	90.4%
UTA 89, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.87,0.95,0.91,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.61,0.45,0.37,0.57,0.73,1	90.0%