NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	112		Excitement	7.5 [392]		MVP	Gordon Hayward (BOS): +24.5%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.3 [647]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -14.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.25	0.19	0.10	0.04	10	76%	0.25	0	0.00	13	92%	0.03
Al Horford	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.01	16	66%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,-0.02,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.08	0.11	-0.08	17	42%	0.18	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.01	3	100%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Brad Wanamaker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0.01	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	73%	0.06	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	5	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Semi Ojeleye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.06	0.01	19	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	11	69%	0.28	3	-0.12	4	0%	-0.09
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.02	0.02	6	71%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	0.03	22	48%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	13	50%	0.02	4	-0.10	8	62%	-0.03
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	15	32%	-0.12	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.7	32.0	11.6	29.7	2.4	34.3	138.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +35.7%

BOS +18.1%

MIA -26.7%

BOS +18.5%

BOS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.8	14.3	113.1	105.2	109.3
season	13.9	14.8		109.9	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.7		106.7	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	14.4	12.8	16.3	14.6
MIA	14.0	16.3	15.4	13.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	67	65	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.13	16	-6	22	14.3	15.1	-0.80	14.7	15.2	-0.53
Jayson Tatum	81	77	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.12	16	-6	22	14.0	16.9	-2.85	15.6	11.8	3.82
Marcus Smart	61	61	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	0	10	14.6	14.5	0.13	14.9	14.7	0.22
Al Horford	73	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.08	13	-3	16	14.7	14.3	0.39	14.7	15.1	-0.33
Kyrie Irving	65	67	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	6	-2	13.8	15.9	-2.07	15.2	14.1	1.11
Aron Baynes	51	51	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	9	-8	13.3	15.9	-2.52	15.7	13.8	1.92
Brad Wanamaker	28	25	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	4	2	16.2	13.9	2.31	14.3	15.0	-0.69
Terry Rozier	48	45	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	14	-18	16.4	12.8	3.61	13.6	15.9	-2.30
Daniel Theis	7	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	12	-14	14.3	14.6	-0.29	10.0	15.3	-5.27
Semi Ojeleye	14	15	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.06	-10	20	-30	16.2	14.3	1.93	14.1	15.0	-0.83

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	33	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-6	2	15.4	14.5	0.89	13.8	14.9	-1.11
Justise Winslow	45	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-9	8	13.5	16.0	-2.51	16.0	13.2	2.79
Rodney McGruder	18	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	-3	-4	16.9	14.4	2.52	14.0	14.7	-0.69
Bam Adebayo	54	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-5	0	16.2	13.1	3.17	12.8	16.8	-3.99
Kelly Olynyk	60	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	-1	-8	15.3	14.1	1.22	13.4	16.3	-2.93
Hassan Whiteside	42	43	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-8	6	13.1	16.2	-3.11	16.9	12.7	4.20
Dwyane Wade	53	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-2	-6	14.1	15.8	-1.72	14.7	14.3	0.39
James Johnson	17	17	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-5	0	13.7	15.1	-1.37	17.3	14.0	3.31
Goran Dragic	76	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-6	2	15.3	13.2	2.04	14.6	14.6	-0.01
Dion Waiters	87	88	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.31	-5	-5	0	14.9	14.7	0.15	14.3	16.8	-2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.32,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.48,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 105, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.1,0.03,0,0	94.0%
DAL 107, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.2,0.23,0.16,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.02,0,0	92.6%
CHA 108, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	92.5%