NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	105		Excitement	6.1 [607]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +37.1%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.5 [235]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -13.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.15	0.10	-0.02	14	65%	0.27	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Roy	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.13	0.10	-0.02	8	82%	0.25	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.07	-0.00	20	59%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Andre Miller	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.07	0.02	8	78%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	85%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	6	25%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	6	23%	-0.05	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.18	0.18	-0.01	21	69%	0.43	3	-0.06	13	92%	0.07
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.01	20	70%	0.25	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.06
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	11	30%	-0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.0	34.0	15.0	27.1	2.4	28.6	132.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +28.9%

POR +7.0%

POR +4.8%

POR +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	19.5	15.0	15.5	126.5	114.3	105.7
season	16.5	16.0		106.7	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	20.6	18.4	18.1	21.1	19.5
MIA	15.4	15.1	15.5	13.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	71	71	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.27	16	-7	23	19.5	20.1	-0.63	15.4	12.9	2.43
Brandon Roy	41	42	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-5	19	19.6	19.5	0.09	13.2	16.7	-3.52
Gerald Wallace	60	60	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	2	5	19.8	18.8	1.05	14.4	16.3	-1.90
Andre Miller	54	55	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	3	3	19.7	19.2	0.46	15.7	13.7	2.02
Wesley Matthews	52	52	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	7	-5	19.5	19.6	-0.11	15.4	14.2	1.22
Rudy Fernandez	37	39	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.12	3	6	-3	19.6	19.5	0.14	13.7	16.0	-2.30
Patty Mills	29	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	8	-7	19.2	19.7	-0.46	14.1	15.4	-1.36
Nicolas Batum	36	37	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	6	-3	19.5	19.6	-0.12	16.9	13.4	3.47
Marcus Camby	35	36	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.03	-7	16	-23	19.2	19.8	-0.54	15.5	14.6	0.92

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	3	3	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-11	13	6.3	15.3	-8.96	23.7	19.4	4.28
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	7	6	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-10	11	17.4	14.8	2.68	15.2	19.9	-4.72
Joel Anthony	24	23	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-6	3	12.1	16.1	-3.99	20.2	19.3	0.93
Erick Dampier	22	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	16.9	14.3	2.62	18.7	19.8	-1.11
Mike Miller	43	42	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-4	-1	15.0	15.0	-0.05	19.6	19.5	0.16
Mario Chalmers	59	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-4	-1	15.0	15.0	-0.03	20.0	18.4	1.58
LeBron James	80	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.27	-2	-7	5	15.1	13.2	1.81	19.7	16.4	3.34
Mike Bibby	39	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-3	-3	13.9	15.9	-2.06	19.5	19.6	-0.10
Dwyane Wade	73	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.23	-12	3	-15	15.1	14.0	1.12	19.8	18.0	1.75
Chris Bosh	70	70	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.28	-15	6	-21	15.9	10.6	5.29	18.9	22.8	-3.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.1,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 112, MIA 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.32,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.48,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.0%
SEA 120, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.43,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.04,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.05,0	93.2%
SAC 111, ORL 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.01,0	93.1%