NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	125		Excitement	8.8 [205]		MVP	Buddy Hield (SAC): +34.9%
Dallas Mavericks	121		Comeback	10.0 [166]		LVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): -16.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Buddy Hield	0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.32,0.35	0.04	0.29	-0.02	13	53%	0.39	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.06
De'Aaron Fox	0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.13,0.25,0.32	0.06	0.26	-0.01	16	52%	0.36	1	-0.03	12	92%	0.14
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.11	-0.00	10	67%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.14	0.05	0.00	8	89%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Bagley III	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	7	70%	0.18	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.03
Nemanja Bjelica	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	0.06	-0.07	0.05	16	55%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.32	0.32	0.16	0.17	0.01	7	84%	0.36	1	-0.04	11	82%	0.01
Ryan Broekhoff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.11	0.15	0.00	5	92%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Brunson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.09	0.01	8	94%	0.32	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	10	77%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	5	30%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	64%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.09,-0.2,-0.17	-0.17	0.01	-0.17	-0.00	20	55%	-0.05	4	-0.12	11	91%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	29.4	14.7	27.0	1.8	35.2	134.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +2.4%

SAC +17.2%

SAC +16.7%

SAC +18.5%

DAL -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	14.3	134.4	128.7	109.3
season	13.3	14.7		109.2	108.5
opponent	14.1	14.3		109.7	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.5	15.0	16.2	12.8	15.3
DAL	16.0	13.2	16.5	16.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Cauley-Stein	59	59	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.41	17	-13	30	14.3	16.9	-2.59	15.8	15.1	0.67
De'Aaron Fox	61	62	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.47	12	-8	20	14.6	16.5	-1.92	15.6	15.4	0.19
Buddy Hield	68	68	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.35	15	-11	26	14.4	17.6	-3.24	16.4	13.4	2.97
Harrison Barnes	64	63	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.41	11	-7	18	15.2	15.4	-0.21	16.0	14.5	1.47
Bogdan Bogdanovic	56	59	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.44	-3	7	-10	15.2	15.4	-0.23	15.0	16.5	-1.47
Kosta Koufos	14	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	8	-12	16.8	15.0	1.79	12.4	16.1	-3.73
Corey Brewer	14	15	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	11	-18	16.8	15.0	1.79	12.3	16.2	-3.89
Nemanja Bjelica	53	53	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.23	1	3	-2	15.8	14.5	1.26	16.7	14.0	2.76
Yogi Ferrell	32	32	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.09	-8	12	-20	16.5	14.6	1.92	15.4	15.6	-0.19
Marvin Bagley III	44	45	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	0.04	-14	18	-32	16.5	14.2	2.29	14.7	16.3	-1.66

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	24	24	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-7	10	13.7	16.2	-2.50	15.7	15.1	0.54
Trey Burke	37	36	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-5	6	15.2	15.7	-0.48	14.8	15.5	-0.71
Dirk Nowitzki	23	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-1	-2	14.0	16.0	-2.09	15.5	15.2	0.28
Ryan Broekhoff	59	57	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.49	15	-19	34	14.9	16.5	-1.57	15.4	15.0	0.39
Dorian Finney-Smith	42	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-4	4	15.6	15.4	0.20	14.9	15.5	-0.61
Justin Jackson	32	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.16	-11	7	-18	16.1	15.2	0.90	15.2	15.3	-0.09
Jalen Brunson	57	57	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	1	-6	15.7	15.2	0.48	15.5	14.8	0.71
Dwight Powell	64	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.27	-10	6	-16	15.7	15.2	0.44	15.2	15.4	-0.14
Maxi Kleber	62	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.48	-3	-1	-2	16.1	14.3	1.80	15.4	15.1	0.26
Luka Doncic	70	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	16.2	13.7	2.50	15.1	15.7	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.58,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.57,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 91, PHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.68,0.42,0	92.6%
CHI 93, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.16,0	92.4%
CLE 90, NYK 84	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.76,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.57,0.28,0	91.4%