NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	125		Excitement	4.5 [949]		MVP	Pascal Siakam (TOR): +11.3%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.1 [668]		LVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): -10.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.01	12	69%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Danny Green	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	9	83%	0.15	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	14	77%	0.16	6	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Norman Powell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	7	83%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	69%	0.07	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Chris Boucher	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	7	61%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	7	65%	0.06	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	-0.00	0.07	11	76%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	12	62%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	55%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.04	10	68%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9	42%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	13	36%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	10	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	8	6%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	30.8	14.8	25.5	2.5	32.3	134.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +52.9%

TOR +9.5%

MIA -3.2%

MIA -9.9%

TOR +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	12.7	15.5	14.3	121.4	102.0	109.3
season	14.3	14.8		111.5	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.5		106.7	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.6	11.5	13.5	12.2	12.7
MIA	16.4	14.7	15.3	15.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	78	76	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.34	31	-10	41	11.9	15.0	-3.16	16.0	13.8	2.22
Patrick McCaw	52	53	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.14	22	-1	23	13.0	12.3	0.78	16.8	14.0	2.77
Serge Ibaka	48	47	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.09	18	3	15	12.3	12.9	-0.63	16.0	15.0	1.04
Danny Green	54	54	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.02	15	6	9	12.9	12.4	0.50	16.1	14.8	1.30
Pascal Siakam	61	61	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	9	3	12.9	12.3	0.66	15.6	15.3	0.24
Marc Gasol	48	47	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	17	-13	12.6	12.7	-0.09	15.1	15.8	-0.74
Jeremy Lin	51	51	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	18	-15	12.5	12.7	-0.20	14.7	16.2	-1.47
OG Anunoby	54	52	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	18	-15	12.6	12.7	-0.16	14.5	16.4	-1.88
Chris Boucher	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	15.3	12.5	2.83	14.5	15.5	-1.04
Malcolm Miller	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	15.3	12.5	2.83	14.5	15.5	-1.04
Norman Powell	55	53	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	22	-23	12.7	12.6	0.05	14.3	16.7	-2.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	43	45	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-22	23	14.5	16.1	-1.60	13.2	12.2	0.98
Ryan Anderson	8	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-22	23	14.5	15.5	-1.04	15.3	12.5	2.83
Derrick Jones Jr.	52	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-19	17	14.7	16.2	-1.49	12.8	12.5	0.32
Hassan Whiteside	38	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-19	17	15.2	15.6	-0.48	12.2	12.9	-0.78
Dwyane Wade	45	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-18	15	15.9	15.1	0.73	12.3	12.9	-0.56
Rodney McGruder	46	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-16	11	14.3	16.4	-2.11	12.4	12.8	-0.41
Justise Winslow	60	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.19	-17	-4	-13	15.6	15.2	0.46	12.9	12.3	0.60
Bam Adebayo	58	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	-9	-3	15.3	15.7	-0.35	13.5	11.5	2.09
Kelly Olynyk	51	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.22	-20	-1	-19	16.1	14.8	1.35	12.2	13.1	-0.85
Josh Richardson	56	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.38	-27	6	-33	16.4	14.4	1.99	11.7	13.9	-2.28
Dion Waiters	53	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.07	-19	-2	-17	16.3	14.6	1.75	12.7	12.6	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 117, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
SAS 95, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
BOS 114, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%