NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	98		Excitement	4.7 [919]		MVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): +8.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	117		Comeback	1.2 [1143]		LVP	Thaddeus Young (IND): -12.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle O'Quinn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	7	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	15	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
TJ Leaf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Edmond Sumner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	28%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Myles Turner	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.04	0.04	19	55%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	0.01
Thaddeus Young	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	0.05	9	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.14	-0.00	0.05	15	69%	0.16	3	-0.07	9	78%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	8	81%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	4	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	9	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.03	0.08	17	69%	0.07	6	-0.12	8	100%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	29.6	15.6	30.3	2.5	30.2	135.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.6%

MIL +10.6%

MIL +15.1%

MIL +1.6%

MIL +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	14.2	14.1	14.3	98.0	112.5	109.3
season	14.5	13.5		108.4	112.4
opponent	14.3	14.6		104.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.2	13.0	14.1	14.6	14.2
MIL	12.0	14.2	13.6	16.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Holiday	3	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	8.7	14.4	-5.68	20.8	13.7	7.08
Edmond Sumner	3	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	8.7	14.4	-5.68	20.8	13.7	7.08
Thaddeus Young	72	73	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-15	11	13.9	14.8	-0.84	14.0	14.2	-0.15
Cory Joseph	49	53	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.10	-9	-10	1	14.2	14.2	0.05	13.8	14.3	-0.43
Kyle O'Quinn	27	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	-11	3	14.3	14.1	0.16	14.1	14.0	0.06
Tyreke Evans	26	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.12	-12	-7	-5	15.1	13.9	1.21	13.1	14.4	-1.31
Bojan Bogdanovic	70	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-10	1	14.2	14.2	-0.08	13.9	14.3	-0.35
Doug McDermott	30	33	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-12	5	14.3	14.1	0.17	14.1	14.1	0.00
TJ Leaf	20	23	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	-7	-5	14.7	14.0	0.65	14.9	13.8	1.10
Wesley Matthews	71	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-11	3	14.1	14.4	-0.33	13.9	14.3	-0.38
Myles Turner	73	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	-8	-3	14.1	14.3	-0.16	14.0	14.1	-0.06
Darren Collison	56	55	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.03	-17	-2	-15	14.5	13.7	0.81	13.5	14.7	-1.20

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	62	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.38	28	-9	37	13.0	15.6	-2.58	14.9	13.1	1.77
Giannis Antetokounmpo	70	71	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.20	20	-1	21	13.3	15.6	-2.23	15.0	12.2	2.73
Pat Connaughton	39	35	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.13	15	4	11	14.3	13.9	0.44	14.4	14.1	0.34
Khris Middleton	74	72	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	9	1	13.8	14.6	-0.76	13.6	15.6	-1.98
Eric Bledsoe	56	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	12	-5	14.7	13.3	1.42	14.0	14.4	-0.47
Ersan Ilyasova	28	26	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.26	18	1	17	13.3	14.3	-1.06	15.2	13.8	1.37
Tony Snell	41	36	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	15	-11	14.7	13.6	1.07	14.4	14.0	0.37
Pau Gasol	25	21	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	18	-17	15.0	13.8	1.24	12.2	14.7	-2.46
Brook Lopez	67	67	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.21	-3	22	-25	14.0	14.1	-0.08	13.8	14.9	-1.13
Nikola Mirotic	40	41	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	19	-19	14.5	13.8	0.76	13.8	14.5	-0.68
D.J. Wilson	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	15.0	14.0	0.97	8.0	14.3	-6.31
Donte DiVincenzo	19	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	24	-29	15.6	13.7	1.93	13.3	14.4	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.83,0.93,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, ATL 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
WAS 86, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.83,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.51,0.55,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
UTA 86, LAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%