NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	97		Excitement	9.3 [148]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +23.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	98		Comeback	2.4 [673]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -14.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.21	0.01	0.18	-0.02	21	46%	0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	13	61%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.01	9	83%	0.21	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.15,0.16,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	27	41%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	12	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Guerschon Yabusele	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	8	31%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.25,0.13,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.09	0.15	-0.00	19	62%	0.41	4	-0.18	10	70%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.10	-0.01	14	54%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	4	112%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,0.11	0.11	-0.07	0.19	0.01	14	50%	0.26	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	11	45%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.11	0.07	-0.01	9	25%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.2	24.4	15.8	27.2	3.5	32.2	131.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +52.5%

MIL +14.7%

MIL +10.6%

BOS -47.2%

MIL +19.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.3	13.9	14.3	96.0	95.1	109.3
season	13.9	13.5		109.9	112.4
opponent	14.3	14.7		104.0	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.7	17.1	14.1	13.8	14.3
MIL	13.5	14.2	13.6	14.5	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	77	82	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.47	12	-13	25	13.8	15.8	-1.95	14.1	13.1	1.05
Marcus Smart	66	68	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.42	9	-10	19	13.3	16.1	-2.81	14.3	13.1	1.20
Daniel Theis	13	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	8	-17	15.2	14.2	1.06	13.2	14.0	-0.87
Terry Rozier	41	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	3	-7	15.9	13.2	2.64	13.1	14.5	-1.43
Guerschon Yabusele	11	9	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	3	-7	16.5	14.0	2.41	13.0	14.0	-1.02
Jayson Tatum	70	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.45	7	-8	15	14.1	14.7	-0.58	14.9	11.8	3.09
Kyrie Irving	87	89	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-6	11	13.8	17.7	-3.96	14.1	12.8	1.33
Semi Ojeleye	24	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	10	-21	17.0	13.5	3.53	11.9	14.6	-2.68
Marcus Morris	66	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.46	4	-5	9	13.5	15.8	-2.24	14.5	12.9	1.56
Jaylen Brown	50	51	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.09	-14	13	-27	15.2	13.4	1.85	12.7	15.1	-2.43

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	72	70	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.48	6	-5	11	14.1	13.6	0.41	14.3	14.4	-0.16
Brook Lopez	73	70	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	0	1	14.5	12.7	1.79	13.9	15.3	-1.37
Ersan Ilyasova	25	27	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	-12	25	11.1	14.8	-3.71	16.6	13.5	3.12
Tony Snell	33	33	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	-6	13	13.1	14.3	-1.28	16.1	13.4	2.65
Giannis Antetokounmpo	81	77	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.51	-10	11	-21	14.4	12.0	2.40	13.7	16.4	-2.71
George Hill	44	46	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.08	10	-9	19	12.6	14.9	-2.26	15.2	13.6	1.55
Khris Middleton	68	65	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.41	-9	10	-19	14.4	13.0	1.41	13.4	16.0	-2.63
Eric Bledsoe	70	66	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.54	-15	16	-31	14.8	12.1	2.66	13.9	15.1	-1.19
Sterling Brown	20	20	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	0	1	13.3	14.1	-0.72	13.9	14.4	-0.51
Nikola Mirotic	29	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.04	1	0	1	13.5	14.1	-0.63	14.9	14.0	0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.45,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.84,1	92.1%
DET 102, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.45,0.57,1	91.2%
NJN 98, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.67,0.84,1	91.1%