NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	7.7 [349]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +20.6%
Indiana Pacers	97		Comeback	7.8 [251]		LVP	Brook Lopez (MIL): -14.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.21	0.06	0.11	-0.04	7	69%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.17	0.14	0.07	0.04	22	61%	0.21	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	11	63%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
George Hill	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	8	71%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.00	16	41%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Tony Snell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Wilson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	4	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05
Brook Lopez	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	11	41%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	12	58%	0.17	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.04	0.03	14	59%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
TJ Leaf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	45%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.07	0.01	11	58%	0.07	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Myles Turner	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	13	39%	0.00	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	9	39%	0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	25.5	15.5	27.3	2.4	33.3	129.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +19.0%

MIL +10.9%

MIL +7.7%

MIL +15.4%

IND -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	13.9	15.0	14.3	103.9	99.0	109.3
season	13.5	14.5		112.4	108.4
opponent	14.6	14.3		105.7	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.7	14.5	13.0	13.3	13.9
IND	14.7	14.3	12.7	18.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	65	64	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.18	19	-10	29	12.7	16.0	-3.31	15.4	14.2	1.15
Brook Lopez	72	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.32	13	-4	17	13.8	14.1	-0.34	15.5	13.5	2.04
Giannis Antetokounmpo	79	76	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.11	19	-10	29	13.3	16.0	-2.70	15.8	12.2	3.58
Ersan Ilyasova	48	46	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.13	18	-9	27	13.1	14.5	-1.43	15.8	14.2	1.55
Khris Middleton	70	66	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.29	12	-3	15	13.6	14.4	-0.75	15.5	13.7	1.80
George Hill	42	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	12	-15	15.4	12.8	2.66	13.6	15.8	-2.25
Tony Snell	37	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.14	-10	19	-29	14.8	13.4	1.40	14.4	15.3	-0.88
Sterling Brown	32	32	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.08	-3	12	-15	14.5	13.6	0.88	13.0	15.9	-2.96
Eric Bledsoe	45	43	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.02	-7	16	-23	14.1	13.7	0.36	15.0	15.0	-0.01
D.J. Wilson	20	21	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.04	-13	22	-35	16.8	13.1	3.65	11.7	15.8	-4.13

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
TJ Leaf	3	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-8	7	14.0	15.0	-0.99	9.3	14.0	-4.67
Doug McDermott	32	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-8	7	15.3	14.8	0.57	14.7	13.5	1.20
Myles Turner	59	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-12	15	14.3	16.0	-1.69	13.6	14.3	-0.72
Tyreke Evans	38	38	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	-1	-7	15.0	14.9	0.02	14.2	13.7	0.47
Domantas Sabonis	54	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	0	-9	14.8	15.1	-0.28	14.4	13.3	1.12
Darren Collison	60	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-7	5	14.9	15.0	-0.02	13.8	13.9	-0.06
Cory Joseph	41	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	1	-11	15.3	14.7	0.57	13.7	14.0	-0.30
Bojan Bogdanovic	65	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-7	5	14.6	15.6	-0.98	13.9	13.8	0.03
Wesley Matthews	64	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-1	-7	14.8	15.3	-0.47	13.4	14.7	-1.31
Thaddeus Young	74	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	15.7	12.7	3.04	13.9	13.7	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.45,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.72,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.55,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, SAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.62,0.36,0.06,0.05,0	91.4%
HOU 94, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.6,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.16,0.04,0	90.5%
SAS 86, CHA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.66,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.62,0.28,0.14,0.16,0	90.3%