NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	100		Excitement	6.9 [449]		MVP	Danny Green (SAS): +11.1%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	7.4 [166]		LVP	Gary Neal (SAS): -20.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	7	62%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.10	0.02	0.04	8	68%	0.10	1	-0.03	12	83%	-0.02
Gerald Wallace	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.01	13	48%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	15	65%	0.11	3	-0.07	10	80%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	7	65%	0.12	5	-0.18	3	33%	-0.04
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	10	43%	-0.00	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	3	117%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	20	55%	0.09	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.04
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	11	52%	0.06	2	-0.10	5	40%	-0.06
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	4	30%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.10	0.05	5	50%	-0.12	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.10
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	14	29%	-0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	32.3	16.7	22.8	1.8	37.2	138.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +50.6%

POR +8.4%

POR +1.7%

SAS -13.6%

POR +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAS	NBA	POR	SAS	NBA
this game	17.3	15.6	15.5	114.9	104.5	105.7
season	16.5	15.5		106.7	109.3
opponent	15.2	15.7		103.6	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	20.0	15.5	18.5	15.7	17.3
SAS	14.3	17.3	15.8	15.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	52	53	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.36	16	-8	24	17.1	17.7	-0.54	14.3	17.5	-3.19
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	69	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.38	12	-4	16	16.9	18.7	-1.80	15.9	14.4	1.56
Andre Miller	66	68	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.36	10	-2	12	18.0	15.3	2.70	16.1	13.9	2.19
Nicolas Batum	59	60	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-1	10	16.6	18.8	-2.14	15.0	16.8	-1.75
Gerald Wallace	70	71	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	1	6	17.2	17.8	-0.61	14.7	19.5	-4.81
Patty Mills	9	10	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	7	-6	16.4	17.4	-0.99	16.5	15.5	1.03
Marcus Camby	32	32	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.12	-3	11	-14	18.4	16.7	1.65	16.0	15.4	0.59
Brandon Roy	42	41	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.16	-4	12	-16	16.8	17.9	-1.10	16.7	14.6	2.09
Rudy Fernandez	37	36	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.11	-8	16	-24	18.5	16.5	2.01	16.8	14.8	2.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	44	45	0.20	-0.70	0.91	0.15	2	-10	12	16.5	14.7	1.73	17.2	17.5	-0.32
James Anderson	31	32	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.03	7	-15	22	15.0	15.9	-0.96	19.5	16.1	3.48
Chris Quinn	24	22	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.08	3	-11	14	17.6	14.8	2.80	16.2	17.7	-1.48
DeJuan Blair	33	35	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-8	8	16.8	14.9	1.87	17.7	17.1	0.64
Danny Green	36	34	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.14	-3	-5	2	17.6	14.2	3.32	17.3	17.3	-0.02
Tiago Splitter	55	52	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.35	-8	0	-8	14.9	16.8	-1.87	17.1	17.7	-0.64
George Hill	69	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.39	-7	-1	-6	14.8	18.5	-3.74	17.6	16.4	1.22
Richard Jefferson	49	49	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	0	-8	14.3	17.2	-2.95	17.2	17.5	-0.25
Gary Neal	55	54	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.22	-16	8	-24	15.9	15.0	0.95	16.3	19.1	-2.78
Matt Bonner	44	42	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.41	-10	2	-12	14.7	16.5	-1.73	17.5	17.2	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.62,0.36,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 106, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.61,0.75,0.37,0.23,0.03,0	92.4%
MIL 106, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.45,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.72,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.55,0.1,0.01,0	91.4%
CLE 107, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.65,0.73,0.47,0.28,0.06,0.04,0	91.2%