NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	3.9 [1060]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +11.4%
Brooklyn Nets	94		Comeback	1.4 [508]		LVP	DeMarre Carroll (BKN): -6.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	19	65%	0.17	4	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.01	-0.03	16	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.07	8	30%	0.03	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.05
George Hill	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Wood	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	71%	0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	16	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	62%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	8	25%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	0.00	0.05	4	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	12	43%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Treveon Graham	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alan Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dzanan Musa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Creek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	5	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Theo Pinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	42%	-0.01	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Jarrett Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	20	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	15	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	46%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Rodions Kurucs	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	10	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	11	30%	-0.06	1	-0.00	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.3	31.5	0.2	20.8	1.8	27.5	111.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +52.0%

BKN -9.6%

MIL +6.0%

MIL +2.7%

BKN -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BKN	NBA	MIL	BKN	NBA
this game	13.0	13.7	14.3	104.6	87.0	109.3
season	13.5	14.3		112.4	108.6
opponent	14.0	14.3		109.1	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.8	11.9	12.4	15.0	13.0
BKN	12.9	14.4	13.7	13.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.21	21	-2	23	12.9	13.1	-0.28	13.8	13.5	0.24
Eric Bledsoe	63	63	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	6	7	12.3	14.0	-1.69	13.8	13.4	0.40
Giannis Antetokounmpo	74	73	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	12	-5	12.6	13.9	-1.39	14.0	13.1	0.87
Brook Lopez	54	51	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.14	15	4	11	11.4	14.6	-3.28	13.8	13.6	0.21
Khris Middleton	60	58	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	9	1	11.4	15.0	-3.58	13.7	13.6	0.14
D.J. Wilson	49	49	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.17	13	6	7	13.5	12.6	0.88	13.5	13.8	-0.38
George Hill	36	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	9	1	13.7	12.7	1.01	13.6	13.7	-0.18
Tony Snell	44	47	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	12	-5	14.0	12.3	1.66	14.3	13.2	1.14
Ersan Ilyasova	39	43	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	16	-13	15.5	11.6	3.91	13.3	13.9	-0.62
Sterling Brown	36	34	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.13	8	11	-3	13.3	12.8	0.43	14.0	13.5	0.47
Christian Wood	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	15.0	12.8	2.17	11.9	13.8	-1.94
Pat Connaughton	18	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.31	-11	30	-41	15.9	12.4	3.54	11.3	14.2	-2.86

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Williams	14	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-25	31	11.4	14.0	-2.58	14.7	12.7	1.95
Dzanan Musa	16	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	12.7	13.8	-1.09	14.2	12.8	1.41
Mitchell Creek	33	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-21	23	13.2	13.9	-0.76	15.7	11.9	3.81
Theo Pinson	57	55	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.18	1	-20	21	13.4	14.0	-0.54	14.4	11.5	2.87
Ed Davis	13	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.09	-9	-10	1	14.7	13.5	1.16	14.3	12.8	1.49
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	44	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	-9	-1	14.2	13.3	0.82	14.3	12.2	2.06
DeMarre Carroll	58	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	-11	3	14.4	12.8	1.59	13.7	12.2	1.43
Treveon Graham	53	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.06	-10	-9	-1	13.7	13.6	0.12	11.7	14.3	-2.54
Jarrett Allen	57	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.15	-15	-4	-11	13.8	13.5	0.24	11.4	15.0	-3.60
Shabazz Napier	68	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.18	-17	-2	-15	13.9	13.3	0.60	11.5	15.6	-4.10
Rodions Kurucs	61	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.22	-22	3	-25	13.7	13.6	0.10	12.0	14.5	-2.53
D'Angelo Russell	66	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.03	-14	-5	-9	13.3	14.3	-1.04	13.3	12.6	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 96, NJN 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
ORL 89, NJN 81	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
OKC 100, NOH 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%