NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	87		Excitement	6.0 [671]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +13.1%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	1.2 [599]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -18.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Snell	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.05	0.03	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.06	11	39%	0.03	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Sterling Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	7	64%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Bledsoe	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	0.01	12	49%	0.02	3	-0.11	11	82%	-0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1	-0.04	-0.03	0.03	18	47%	0.01	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.03	0.01	12	32%	-0.10	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.02	9	54%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.07	0.03	11	59%	0.12	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	38%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	12	44%	0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.01	0.01	17	29%	-0.12	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	0.2	30.2	14.7	25.2	1.7	35.0	127.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.4%

MIL -4.7%

MIA +13.3%

MIA +19.7%

MIA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.3	14.9	14.3	85.3	92.2	109.3
season	13.5	14.8		112.4	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		106.7	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.6	13.1	15.2	12.6	13.3
MIA	14.6	17.5	13.6	14.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thon Maker	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-5	3	13.6	13.3	0.26	17.7	14.4	3.32
D.J. Wilson	55	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-9	11	13.1	13.7	-0.63	14.5	15.3	-0.79
George Hill	34	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-3	-1	14.0	13.0	0.99	14.1	15.3	-1.23
Brook Lopez	61	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	-4	1	13.2	13.5	-0.32	14.9	14.9	0.05
Khris Middleton	74	75	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-11	15	12.9	14.6	-1.74	14.9	14.7	0.21
Tony Snell	70	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-8	9	13.1	13.8	-0.68	15.3	14.0	1.24
Sterling Brown	25	23	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	5	-17	14.2	13.1	1.19	14.1	15.1	-1.04
Pat Connaughton	29	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	3	-13	14.2	13.0	1.21	14.9	14.9	0.01
Eric Bledsoe	74	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-5	3	13.1	14.0	-0.95	15.1	14.3	0.76
Giannis Antetokounmpo	72	74	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	2	-11	13.6	12.7	0.96	14.5	15.8	-1.28

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	60	61	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.12	17	-10	27	14.1	16.0	-1.92	13.4	13.3	0.04
Hassan Whiteside	61	60	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-6	19	14.1	16.0	-1.89	13.3	13.5	-0.19
James Johnson	66	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	0	7	13.9	16.7	-2.83	13.6	12.9	0.62
Josh Richardson	84	84	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	2	3	14.8	15.3	-0.54	13.0	14.9	-1.94
Rodney McGruder	52	51	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-3	13	14.2	15.6	-1.35	14.3	12.4	1.82
Dwyane Wade	55	55	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	4	-1	14.3	15.6	-1.38	13.7	12.9	0.87
Bam Adebayo	36	37	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	8	-9	16.6	13.9	2.70	13.1	13.5	-0.33
Kelly Olynyk	41	42	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.18	-5	12	-17	16.1	14.1	2.02	13.3	13.4	-0.10
Tyler Johnson	38	39	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	13	-19	16.3	14.0	2.27	12.7	13.7	-1.05
Derrick Jones Jr.	17	16	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.12	-8	15	-23	19.1	14.1	5.00	12.4	13.5	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.91,0.9,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 100, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.76,0.92,1	93.8%
POR 91, PHX 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.58,0.65,0.57,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.2%
NYK 91, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.82,0.93,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1	93.1%