NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	110		Excitement	8.2 [282]		MVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): +49.0%
Golden State Warriors	116		Comeback	24.5 [168]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): -9.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.28	0.23	0.07	0.02	15	76%	0.30	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Mo Bamba	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	6	85%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	9	71%	0.14	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.07	0.10	-0.06	10	41%	0.13	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.13	-0.10	0.00	21	62%	0.11	1	-0.07	6	83%	0.03
Wes Iwundu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarell Martin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	14	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	6	43%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.09
Aaron Gordon	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	6	0%	-0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.21,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.49,0.49	0.49	0.13	0.37	0.01	23	60%	0.50	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.34,0.44	0.44	0.19	0.28	0.03	33	62%	0.50	4	-0.06	13	100%	0.08
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	2	37%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jordan Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.09	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Damion Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quinn Cook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.8	27.5	14.7	25.1	0.8	34.0	126.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +52.3%

GSW +9.5%

GSW +4.1%

ORL -13.7%

ORL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	13.5	14.3	112.2	117.2	109.3
season	14.9	13.4		107.2	114.5
opponent	15.0	14.3		108.9	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.4	13.9	16.4	16.1	15.7
GSW	12.4	15.5	13.1	13.2	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	46	46	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.01	11	-17	28	14.6	16.7	-2.12	14.3	12.9	1.36
Mo Bamba	31	30	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-8	10	16.2	15.5	0.75	14.1	13.3	0.76
Jarell Martin	3	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-5	4	19.3	15.6	3.73	11.0	13.6	-2.61
Wes Iwundu	7	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-1	-4	19.1	15.5	3.69	9.2	13.9	-4.66
Jonathon Simmons	56	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-6	6	16.2	15.0	1.25	14.0	12.9	1.13
Jerian Grant	37	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	2	-10	16.9	15.0	1.98	13.3	13.7	-0.44
D.J. Augustin	61	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.37	2	-8	10	15.0	16.9	-1.98	13.7	13.3	0.44
Evan Fournier	64	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	0	-6	15.5	16.0	-0.48	14.4	11.9	2.55
Nikola Vucevic	67	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.28	-8	2	-10	15.5	16.2	-0.75	13.3	14.1	-0.76
Terrence Ross	57	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.30	-9	3	-12	15.5	16.0	-0.45	12.9	14.4	-1.53
Jonathan Isaac	61	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	2	-10	15.9	15.5	0.37	12.9	14.6	-1.73

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	44	42	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.34	17	-11	28	12.0	14.7	-2.72	16.0	15.5	0.46
Kevin Durant	82	82	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.30	13	-7	20	12.9	16.4	-3.47	15.8	15.4	0.41
Quinn Cook	64	64	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	3	0	14.0	12.7	1.31	15.9	15.4	0.55
Andre Iguodala	61	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.44	-2	8	-10	13.7	13.3	0.40	14.9	16.9	-1.97
Klay Thompson	84	82	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	8	-10	14.0	10.9	3.07	15.3	17.9	-2.66
Shaun Livingston	41	42	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.11	10	-4	14	12.4	14.3	-1.91	16.3	15.3	0.96
Jonas Jerebko	36	34	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.10	8	-2	10	13.5	13.6	-0.10	17.0	15.0	2.01
Damian Jones	33	33	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.05	-2	8	-10	14.1	13.3	0.79	15.4	15.9	-0.44
Damion Lee	27	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	12	-18	14.7	13.1	1.66	15.7	15.7	0.05
Jordan Bell	23	24	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	15	-24	15.1	13.1	2.02	15.5	15.8	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.32,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 87, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.25,0.29,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.39,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.91,1	91.3%
CLE 99, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.26,0.46,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.45,0.84,1	90.5%
HOU 94, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.2,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.73,1	90.5%