NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	87		Excitement	6.8 [453]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +46.0%
Boston Celtics	94		Comeback	11.8 [264]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -18.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Parker	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.05,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.14	0.01	13	56%	0.21	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Kapono	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.05	-0.02	10	70%	0.21	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kris Humphries	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	9	35%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	45%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.16,0.05,-0.18,-0.18	0.00	-0.19	-0.00	17	53%	0.09	3	-0.28	9	78%	0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.44,0.46	0.46	0.13	0.34	0.01	22	62%	0.55	4	-0.09	14	86%	0.03
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.15	0.02	13	56%	0.20	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	5	70%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.00	19	54%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	8	25%	-0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	33.3	16.3	26.4	2.5	33.5	139.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +19.6%

BOS +10.4%

TOR -3.7%

BOS +26.4%

TOR -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	17.5	14.2	15.5	96.7	102.2	106.4
season	15.1	15.8		105.0	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.6		101.7	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.2	14.7	19.8	17.2	17.5
BOS	16.1	15.9	12.3	12.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamario Moon	31	30	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.01	5	-12	17	18.2	17.1	1.08	15.3	13.7	1.54
Joey Graham	33	32	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-10	13	17.6	17.4	0.24	15.0	13.8	1.14
Kris Humphries	10	11	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-12	17	16.2	17.6	-1.41	15.4	14.1	1.29
Will Solomon	17	19	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-8	9	16.7	17.6	-0.92	14.0	14.3	-0.29
Chris Bosh	76	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.28	0	-7	7	16.9	20.4	-3.44	14.2	14.1	0.10
Andrea Bargnani	19	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	2	-11	20.1	16.7	3.36	12.6	14.7	-2.02
Jason Kapono	55	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	-4	1	16.8	18.5	-1.78	13.8	14.9	-1.06
Jose Calderon	74	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	3	-13	17.4	17.5	-0.05	14.0	15.1	-1.09
Jermaine O'Neal	75	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.27	-10	3	-13	17.5	17.3	0.23	14.5	13.2	1.29
Anthony Parker	60	63	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.26	-17	10	-27	17.9	16.6	1.23	14.0	14.7	-0.62

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	73	70	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.29	15	-8	23	13.9	15.4	-1.50	17.8	16.3	1.42
Kevin Garnett	68	66	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.32	13	-6	19	13.9	15.2	-1.38	17.6	17.1	0.45
Rajon Rondo	64	63	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.28	10	-3	13	14.1	14.5	-0.39	17.3	17.9	-0.57
Paul Pierce	86	85	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	-1	9	14.3	13.8	0.42	17.6	15.6	1.96
Kendrick Perkins	40	40	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.52	-5	12	-17	15.2	13.5	1.72	16.8	18.0	-1.18
Leon Powe	36	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.19	5	2	3	14.7	13.9	0.72	16.9	17.8	-0.83
Eddie House	29	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	14.0	14.3	-0.33	17.4	17.5	-0.14
Glen Davis	39	39	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	8	-9	13.8	14.5	-0.71	18.7	16.5	2.23
Tony Allen	25	25	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.02	-9	16	-25	15.0	13.9	1.11	16.2	17.9	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.25,0.29,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.39,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 110, GSW 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.32,0.73,1	91.3%
POR 85, MEM 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.25,0.42,0.26,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.39,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.84,1	91.1%
PHX 91, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.28,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.67,0.91,1	91.1%