NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	104		Excitement	7.9 [320]		MVP	Dennis Schroder (OKC): +9.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	109		Comeback	2.2 [789]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -16.8%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Bacon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	11	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devonte' Graham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	9	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.01	15	47%	0.02	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Kemba Walker	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.14,-0.19,-0.08,-0.13,-0.11,-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	23	50%	-0.00	6	-0.16	4	75%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.01	19	59%	0.16	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.05	0.13	-0.01	21	45%	0.15	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.00	7	69%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Deonte Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	8	58%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.03	18	64%	0.15	4	-0.12	11	82%	0.05
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	11	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.06
Alex Abrines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	1.0	28.3	15.3	25.3	1.7	33.2	132.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +25.6%

OKC +6.7%

OKC +13.8%

OKC +3.0%

OKC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	OKC	NBA	CHA	OKC	NBA
this game	14.7	13.4	14.3	101.0	106.9	109.3
season	14.6	12.9		110.4	108.9
opponent	14.9	14.3		106.4	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.3	13.3	17.3	14.1	14.7
OKC	13.3	12.4	13.2	14.7	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Miles Bridges	44	43	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.09	5	-10	15	13.7	15.4	-1.70	14.3	12.7	1.53
Devonte' Graham	41	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.33	10	-15	25	13.7	15.4	-1.73	14.6	12.6	2.07
Frank Kaminsky	41	40	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-4	3	14.3	14.9	-0.59	13.8	13.1	0.63
Dwayne Bacon	42	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-6	7	14.8	14.6	0.19	14.3	12.7	1.53
Nicolas Batum	67	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	5	-15	15.0	14.1	0.90	13.1	13.9	-0.85
Cody Zeller	55	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	0	-5	15.4	13.9	1.43	12.8	14.1	-1.25
Marvin Williams	64	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	1	-7	15.1	14.1	1.04	13.1	13.9	-0.84
Jeremy Lamb	79	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	3	-11	14.7	14.7	0.04	13.0	14.7	-1.67
Kemba Walker	82	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.24	-11	6	-17	14.8	14.1	0.70	12.9	15.3	-2.38

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	73	74	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.23	17	-12	29	12.9	14.6	-1.62	15.4	13.0	2.36
Steven Adams	79	81	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-8	21	12.8	15.4	-2.64	14.9	14.0	0.89
Paul George	79	81	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-8	21	12.8	15.4	-2.64	14.9	14.0	0.89
Jerami Grant	75	75	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-5	15	12.9	14.7	-1.73	15.2	13.4	1.84
Dennis Schroder	68	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	3	-1	13.5	13.3	0.19	14.3	15.5	-1.21
Alex Abrines	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	4	-3	13.0	13.4	-0.45	15.6	14.6	1.05
Raymond Felton	11	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	9	-13	17.1	12.9	4.15	14.5	14.7	-0.22
Deonte Burton	46	45	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	9	-13	14.3	12.6	1.66	14.0	15.2	-1.20
Patrick Patterson	27	28	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	10	-15	14.7	12.9	1.73	13.4	15.2	-1.84
Nerlens Noel	23	22	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.11	-8	13	-21	15.4	12.8	2.64	14.0	14.9	-0.89
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	16	15	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.04	-10	15	-25	13.3	13.4	-0.09	13.5	14.9	-1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.44,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 92, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.94,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.67,0.66,0.81,0.84,0.99,1,1	93.6%
MIA 91, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.66,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.9,1	93.1%
SAC 94, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.92,1	92.8%