NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	121		Excitement	8.7 [212]		MVP	Malcolm Brogdon (MIL): +22.0%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	3.7 [253]		LVP	Gary Harris (DEN): -15.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malcolm Brogdon	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.14	0.03	13	69%	0.28	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.23	-0.02	0.01	17	82%	0.26	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15	0.11	0.03	-0.01	12	81%	0.23	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	10	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	16	59%	0.21	3	-0.17	5	0%	-0.12
John Henson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	5	60%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.08	-0.00	11	73%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.02	8	62%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.16	-0.07	0.02	14	64%	0.07	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.01
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.07	-0.17	0.02	14	67%	0.07	3	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	16	44%	0.02	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	14	45%	-0.08	2	-0.08	5	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.8	26.4	16.4	26.4	2.4	31.4	127.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +65.0%

MIL +0.3%

DEN -9.3%

DEN -5.8%

DEN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	15.2	14.3	122.2	116.3	109.3
season	13.5	14.8		112.4	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.3		108.1	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.7	16.2	13.2	13.2	14.0
DEN	14.0	16.5	16.2	14.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Bledsoe	60	61	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.40	14	-7	21	13.8	14.3	-0.51	16.1	13.8	2.30
Khris Middleton	73	73	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.39	11	-4	15	13.5	15.3	-1.72	14.8	16.4	-1.60
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	72	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.40	8	-1	9	14.3	13.2	1.10	15.7	14.1	1.59
Brook Lopez	77	77	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-3	13	13.5	15.6	-2.10	15.3	14.9	0.43
Malcolm Brogdon	74	69	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	3	1	13.7	15.0	-1.28	14.0	18.2	-4.26
Pat Connaughton	35	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.16	8	-1	9	14.2	13.9	0.35	15.7	15.0	0.71
Ersan Ilyasova	34	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	9	-11	14.0	14.0	-0.00	14.7	15.6	-0.87
Donte DiVincenzo	26	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	12	-17	14.6	13.8	0.78	15.0	15.3	-0.33
Tony Snell	25	24	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.10	-4	11	-15	15.6	13.5	2.14	16.9	14.7	2.16
John Henson	16	16	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.04	-9	16	-25	15.4	13.7	1.64	15.1	15.3	-0.22

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	29	30	0.47	-0.97	1.43	0.17	10	-17	27	15.7	15.1	0.58	14.7	13.7	1.05
Trey Lyles	41	41	0.37	-0.87	1.25	0.17	7	-14	21	16.0	14.7	1.30	14.5	13.7	0.83
Monte Morris	54	54	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.14	7	-14	21	15.9	14.5	1.39	15.0	12.8	2.12
Malik Beasley	45	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.17	-2	-5	3	15.6	14.9	0.70	13.7	14.2	-0.49
Juancho Hernangomez	61	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-2	-3	14.6	16.4	-1.78	14.1	13.8	0.38
Jamal Murray	72	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	-3	-1	15.0	16.0	-1.03	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Gary Harris	62	63	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.34	-17	10	-27	15.4	15.0	0.43	13.3	15.2	-1.88
Paul Millsap	64	65	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.44	-14	7	-21	14.6	16.4	-1.83	13.8	14.3	-0.49
Nikola Jokic	62	62	-0.99	0.49	-1.47	-0.49	-17	10	-27	15.2	15.3	-0.10	13.5	14.8	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.42,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.1,0.19,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.73,0.47,0.63,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, CHH 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.15,0	91.3%
UTA 99, SEA 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.2,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.61,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.27,0	90.8%
CHA 94, TOR 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.18,0.34,0.26,0.38,0.53,0.63,0.47,0.71,0.61,0.75,0.71,0.57,0.27,0	90.2%