NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	98		Excitement	6.4 [572]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (TOR): +17.3%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	1.1 [1198]		LVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): -12.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Frank Kaminsky	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.00	10	54%	0.08	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Cody Zeller	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	59%	0.11	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Treveon Graham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	10	42%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Kemba Walker	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	0.03	-0.05	0.06	23	47%	-0.06	1	-0.03	11	73%	-0.03
Marvin Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.03	0.01	9	81%	0.17	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	78%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.08	0.00	13	50%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	15	60%	0.11	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	46%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Lucas Nogueira	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.02	17	49%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	8	55%	0.04	4	-0.16	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.7	27.2	14.5	26.2	1.6	42.4	135.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +62.2%

CHA -13.6%

TOR +9.4%

CHA -14.4%

TOR +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	TOR	NBA	CHA	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	15.0	14.7	98.0	104.0	107.5
season	14.6	14.6		108.7	112.7
opponent	14.8	14.5		105.9	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.9	13.6	15.3	11.2	13.9
TOR	14.7	13.6	16.0	16.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Treveon Graham	16	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-5	5	12.6	14.2	-1.60	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Michael Carter-Williams	42	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-5	5	14.2	13.7	0.48	13.5	16.1	-2.54
Cody Zeller	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.36	6	-11	17	12.9	15.1	-2.14	14.5	15.6	-1.10
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	35	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.16	-12	7	-19	16.0	12.8	3.22	16.0	14.5	1.51
Marvin Williams	43	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	5	-15	15.1	13.0	2.08	16.0	14.3	1.72
Jeremy Lamb	57	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.49	8	-13	21	13.0	15.1	-2.16	14.3	16.0	-1.67
Frank Kaminsky	58	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-10	15	12.8	15.4	-2.58	14.1	16.4	-2.28
Dwight Howard	45	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	6	-17	15.4	12.7	2.63	15.9	14.3	1.64
Nicolas Batum	71	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-2	-1	13.9	14.0	-0.18	15.8	13.4	2.40
Kemba Walker	79	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.40	-8	3	-11	13.8	14.2	-0.42	15.5	13.1	2.37

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	71	73	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.27	14	-9	23	15.7	13.4	2.30	14.0	13.8	0.18
Serge Ibaka	59	61	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.36	6	-1	7	16.4	13.0	3.38	13.9	13.9	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	58	57	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.18	9	-4	13	16.6	12.8	3.77	14.4	13.3	1.03
Kyle Lowry	71	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	-1	7	15.6	13.6	2.00	13.7	14.4	-0.76
Fred VanVleet	52	52	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.34	-4	9	-13	14.5	15.6	-1.06	12.7	15.2	-2.46
Malcolm Miller	24	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.01	5	0	5	16.4	14.6	1.76	16.9	12.9	4.01
CJ Miles	42	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	4	-3	13.5	16.1	-2.59	14.3	13.6	0.69
Norman Powell	9	9	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	2	1	14.9	15.1	-0.17	12.3	14.1	-1.73
Lucas Nogueira	11	10	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	2	1	11.9	15.4	-3.52	15.0	13.8	1.21
Jakob Poeltl	29	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	9	-13	13.6	15.7	-2.11	13.7	14.0	-0.30
Pascal Siakam	40	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.14	-6	11	-17	13.0	16.4	-3.38	13.2	14.4	-1.24
Delon Wright	29	29	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.08	-8	13	-21	13.6	15.6	-2.01	13.8	14.0	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.73,0.61,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.67,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 85, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.85,0.84,0.95,1	93.9%
DAL 100, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.82,0.87,0.79,0.81,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.99,1	93.6%
TOR 111, BOS 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.99,0.99,1	93.6%