NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	124		Excitement	6.2 [615]		MVP	Paul George (OKC): +71.2%
Denver Nuggets	127		Comeback	1.0 [699]		LVP	Josh Huestis (OKC): -6.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0.71	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.71	0.35	0.42	0.05	26	83%	0.76	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alex Abrines	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	72%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	9	67%	0.07	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,0.05	-0.02	0.10	0.03	18	50%	0.11	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrance Ferguson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Huestis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.52	0.52	0.13	0.41	0.02	16	74%	0.58	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.35	0.35	0.22	0.14	0.00	23	72%	0.37	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.05	0.00	18	69%	0.27	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.03
Will Barton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	11	68%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	41%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.11	0.00	-0.07	7	19%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	3.0	26.4	15.6	26.5	3.4	37.6	135.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.4%

DEN +6.4%

DEN +19.8%

OKC -7.4%

DEN +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	12.5	15.2	14.7	119.2	122.1	107.5
season	14.2	14.7		109.4	111.2
opponent	14.7	15.3		109.9	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.3	14.4	11.3	10.9	12.5
DEN	12.9	14.4	17.0	16.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	72	74	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	0	-3	12.1	13.2	-1.15	15.2	15.3	-0.08
Terrance Ferguson	9	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	0	-3	16.0	12.1	3.88	12.4	15.5	-3.14
Jerami Grant	52	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.54	16	-19	35	11.8	13.1	-1.25	15.7	14.7	1.00
Raymond Felton	30	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.19	3	-6	9	14.0	11.8	2.13	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Alex Abrines	61	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-2	1	12.6	12.3	0.29	15.6	14.7	0.93
Patrick Patterson	33	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-2	1	13.8	11.8	2.00	15.0	15.3	-0.30
Paul George	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-1	-1	11.9	14.3	-2.41	15.4	14.7	0.74
Steven Adams	71	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	9	-21	12.2	13.0	-0.76	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Russell Westbrook	87	86	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	5	-13	12.0	14.9	-2.98	15.2	15.2	0.02
Josh Huestis	26	25	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.54	-4	1	-5	13.7	12.0	1.71	14.7	15.4	-0.74

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	79	80	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.63	5	-2	7	15.8	13.5	2.26	12.0	13.9	-1.85
Will Barton	79	79	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-6	15	14.9	16.3	-1.42	12.6	12.1	0.49
Gary Harris	82	82	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	4	-5	15.7	13.5	2.15	11.8	15.0	-3.23
Wilson Chandler	75	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	0	3	15.6	14.3	1.34	11.7	14.3	-2.58
Jamal Murray	75	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	0	3	15.6	14.3	1.34	11.7	14.3	-2.58
Trey Lyles	32	31	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	3	-3	13.8	15.9	-2.02	13.9	11.8	2.07
Emmanuel Mudiay	29	29	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	3	-3	14.3	15.6	-1.34	14.3	11.7	2.58
Kenneth Faried	20	21	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	2	-1	14.2	15.5	-1.29	15.0	11.8	3.13
Darrell Arthur	3	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	3	-3	9.7	15.4	-5.74	8.0	12.5	-4.54
Torrey Craig	46	46	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.11	-5	8	-13	15.3	15.2	0.04	13.5	11.7	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 56, SEA 71	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
ORL 96, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.86,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.9%
ATL 84, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.8%