NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	119		Excitement	9.1 [139]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +20.4%
Washington Wizards	122		Comeback	3.9 [234]		LVP	Delon Wright (TOR): -18.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.42,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.17	0.07	0.04	19	64%	0.34	2	-0.14	7	71%	-0.23
Jonas Valanciunas	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.02	8	94%	0.18	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	0.00	17	51%	0.16	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.05
OG Anunoby	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.01	8	69%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.03	11	70%	0.08	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	62%	0.07	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Norman Powell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.07	0.00	4	100%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzo Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	0.00	5	83%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.02	20	59%	0.24	2	-0.10	6	100%	0.05
Markieff Morris	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.02,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	0.01	10	58%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.07
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.13	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	11	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	70%	0.12	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Frazier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	9	50%	0.06	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	44%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	27.3	14.7	27.4	2.6	47.0	144.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +17.9%

WAS +2.7%

WAS +32.2%

WAS +2.2%

TOR -5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	14.6	14.1	14.7	119.0	120.8	107.5
season	14.6	14.8		112.7	108.2
opponent	14.7	14.8		107.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.1	15.3	14.6	13.5	14.6
WAS	17.0	13.0	13.7	13.1	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucas Nogueira	7	7	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-4	5	16.0	14.5	1.53	13.4	14.1	-0.70
OG Anunoby	44	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-4	5	16.0	13.5	2.50	13.6	14.4	-0.79
Kyle Lowry	73	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-6	9	14.4	15.0	-0.52	14.4	13.1	1.37
Serge Ibaka	73	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-6	9	14.4	15.0	-0.52	14.4	13.1	1.37
DeMar DeRozan	80	80	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-5	7	14.1	16.3	-2.21	14.3	13.2	1.06
Jonas Valanciunas	61	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-7	11	15.0	14.0	0.99	13.9	14.3	-0.41
Jakob Poeltl	31	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	4	-11	14.0	14.9	-0.89	15.0	13.7	1.30
Delon Wright	27	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	3	-9	15.0	14.4	0.52	13.1	14.4	-1.37
Pascal Siakam	28	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	4	-11	14.4	14.6	-0.21	12.6	14.6	-2.04
Lorenzo Brown	22	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	6	-15	16.5	14.0	2.52	12.8	14.5	-1.68
Norman Powell	54	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-3	3	13.3	16.1	-2.79	14.6	13.4	1.27

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markieff Morris	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.51	0	3	-3	13.9	14.5	-0.62	14.7	14.3	0.39
Marcin Gortat	55	53	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	3	-3	14.3	13.8	0.46	14.6	14.5	0.09
Tomas Satoransky	59	57	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.38	-1	4	-5	14.2	13.9	0.30	14.5	14.7	-0.17
Otto Porter Jr.	62	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	2	-1	13.6	14.8	-1.21	14.8	14.2	0.55
Jodie Meeks	20	20	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	-2	7	12.8	14.4	-1.53	15.9	14.2	1.71
Bradley Beal	80	78	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.36	-5	8	-13	14.5	12.3	2.20	14.3	15.7	-1.41
Tim Frazier	35	36	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	-1	5	13.9	14.2	-0.21	14.3	14.7	-0.39
Kelly Oubre Jr.	48	48	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	1	1	14.1	14.1	0.05	14.2	14.9	-0.71
Ian Mahinmi	40	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	-1	5	14.1	14.0	0.08	14.5	14.6	-0.16
Mike Scott	40	39	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.13	5	-2	7	14.4	13.9	0.57	14.8	14.5	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.27,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.69,0.65,0.33,0.2,0.48,0.78,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 87, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.85,0.98,1	91.0%
HOU 99, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.92,0.93,0.85,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.38,0.64,0.86,0.98,1	90.8%
SEA 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.54,0.73,0.69,0.53,0.39,0.53,0.72,0.76,0.92,1	90.4%