NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	99		Excitement	8.8 [202]		MVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): +19.4%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	4.0 [187]		LVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): -14.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.00	23	55%	0.19	3	-0.09	18	83%	0.04
Danuel House Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nene	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Eric Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.07	-0.10	0.01	17	53%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
PJ Tucker	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	0.01	14	47%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brandon Knight	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	7	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Gerald Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	7	36%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.13,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.15	0.03	10	66%	0.25	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.07
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.08	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.04	-0.01	19	58%	0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	11	42%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	5	25%	-0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	17	28%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.11	-0.01	8	45%	-0.05	2	-0.10	4	25%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.3	29.0	15.8	28.2	2.7	39.2	144.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +22.8%

HOU -16.5%

MIA +46.8%

HOU -8.7%

MIA +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	16.2	14.3	104.2	108.6	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		114.0	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.4		106.7	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.2	17.0	13.6	14.6	14.5
MIA	15.0	17.3	14.7	18.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	33	32	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.05	10	-12	22	15.3	14.0	1.33	17.1	15.7	1.42
Brandon Knight	32	31	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.12	1	-3	4	15.3	14.0	1.23	17.6	15.5	2.18
Chris Paul	24	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	1	-4	14.2	14.5	-0.29	15.2	16.6	-1.44
PJ Tucker	75	73	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.39	7	-9	16	14.0	16.3	-2.33	16.6	14.5	2.09
James Harden	85	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.55	6	-8	14	13.9	19.5	-5.63	16.4	14.4	1.94
Eric Gordon	78	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.48	0	-2	2	14.2	15.5	-1.30	16.2	16.1	0.10
Danuel House Jr.	36	36	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	9	-20	16.0	13.5	2.47	15.3	16.8	-1.49
Gerald Green	50	47	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.33	-8	6	-14	15.0	13.8	1.22	15.4	17.0	-1.51
Clint Capela	62	61	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.39	-12	10	-22	14.0	15.3	-1.33	15.7	17.1	-1.42

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	74	74	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.38	15	-13	28	16.2	16.2	-0.02	14.5	14.3	0.23
Derrick Jones Jr.	51	50	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-9	20	16.4	16.0	0.35	15.9	12.8	3.08
Hassan Whiteside	48	51	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.50	-1	3	-4	16.1	16.3	-0.23	13.4	15.7	-2.31
Dwyane Wade	52	52	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.36	-6	8	-14	15.5	17.1	-1.62	13.5	15.6	-2.13
Rodney McGruder	48	51	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.33	-6	8	-14	16.0	16.4	-0.40	13.8	15.2	-1.47
Wayne Ellington	7	8	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	-3	8	20.3	15.9	4.43	20.7	13.9	6.86
Kelly Olynyk	41	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	-4	10	16.5	15.9	0.61	15.9	13.4	2.53
James Johnson	37	40	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	4	-6	16.0	16.3	-0.28	12.5	15.9	-3.39
Bam Adebayo	45	44	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	-1	4	16.3	16.1	0.23	15.7	13.4	2.31
Tyler Johnson	62	64	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.46	-15	17	-32	16.2	16.1	0.10	14.1	15.2	-1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.92,0.93,0.85,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.38,0.64,0.86,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 105, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	91.6%
TOR 119, WAS 122	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.27,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.69,0.65,0.33,0.2,0.48,0.78,0.92,1	90.8%
PHX 89, LAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.57,0.84,1	90.0%