NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	9.4 [107]		MVP	Jae Crowder (CLE): +26.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	91		Comeback	2.5 [509]		LVP	Isaiah Thomas (CLE): -24.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.12	-0.00	13	56%	0.19	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.09	-0.05	0.14	-0.00	12	42%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	56%	0.04	4	-0.11	8	62%	-0.02
Justise Winslow	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	0.00	5	60%	0.02	3	-0.14	5	60%	-0.02
James Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	-0.00	12	38%	-0.15	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.07
Goran Dragic	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	-0.00	17	47%	-0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.21	-0.00	7	69%	0.29	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.08	-0.00	9	80%	0.24	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.10	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	2	33%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JR Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.01	5	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	0.01	0.01	21	45%	0.04	7	-0.17	11	64%	-0.08
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	8	41%	-0.04	2	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.28,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.12	0.00	15	33%	-0.14	2	-0.10	9	100%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	34.5	15.4	26.6	2.4	41.2	146.6
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -8.6%

CLE +33.3%

CLE +1.5%

CLE +10.7%

CLE +13.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	13.9	13.7	14.7	84.8	87.5	107.5
season	15.1	14.8		105.4	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.6		110.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	11.6	15.4	13.5	13.9
CLE	13.2	12.4	14.0	15.4	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	52	53	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.06	-2	0	-2	13.5	14.2	-0.65	13.2	14.2	-0.99
Wayne Ellington	56	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-1	0	13.8	13.9	-0.10	14.1	13.2	0.87
Kelly Olynyk	47	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.33	4	-6	10	13.4	14.2	-0.80	14.2	13.2	0.99
Bam Adebayo	41	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	0	-2	14.3	13.6	0.74	13.9	13.6	0.37
Goran Dragic	73	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.38	5	-7	12	14.0	13.6	0.35	13.9	13.3	0.62
James Johnson	51	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	2	-6	14.5	13.3	1.21	13.7	13.7	-0.04
Justise Winslow	58	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	3	-8	13.5	14.3	-0.82	13.3	14.1	-0.77
Josh Richardson	79	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.47	2	-4	6	13.6	14.7	-1.15	13.7	13.6	0.13
Tyler Johnson	68	67	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.44	-7	5	-12	14.2	13.2	1.09	13.3	14.4	-1.11

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	56	56	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	1	0	13.9	13.5	0.43	14.1	13.6	0.52
LeBron James	82	85	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	-1	4	13.7	13.5	0.19	13.7	14.6	-0.97
Jae Crowder	59	58	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	0	2	13.5	13.9	-0.39	14.1	13.6	0.57
Jeff Green	47	49	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	2	-2	13.6	13.8	-0.25	13.2	14.4	-1.24
JR Smith	63	63	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	0	2	13.4	14.1	-0.71	14.1	13.5	0.69
Kyle Korver	42	43	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.27	-3	5	-8	14.2	13.4	0.84	13.4	14.2	-0.84
Isaiah Thomas	65	65	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	2	-2	13.7	13.6	0.12	13.9	13.9	-0.01
Derrick Rose	11	11	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	0	2	13.5	13.7	-0.27	16.2	13.6	2.59
Tristan Thompson	51	51	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.20	8	-6	14	13.2	14.2	-1.01	14.0	13.7	0.30
Channing Frye	45	45	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.13	-7	9	-16	14.1	13.4	0.74	13.5	14.1	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.39,0.29,0.67,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 107, DET 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.24,0.29,0.44,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.57,0.85,1	91.8%
PHI 104, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.55,0.58,1	90.6%
PHI 97, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.31,0.46,0.68,0.84,1	90.4%