NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	89		Excitement	9.1 [142]		MVP	Gary Harris (DEN): +40.9%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	7.5 [348]		LVP	Dennis Smith Jr. (DAL): -31.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.21,0.15	-0.03	0.15	-0.03	10	35%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Collinsworth	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	3	117%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	6	57%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	11	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	13	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Powell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.08	0.00	3	67%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.08
Harrison Barnes	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.07	0.02	-0.09	-0.01	19	52%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.09
Salah Mejri	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Smith Jr.	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.31	-0.12	-0.20	-0.01	18	31%	-0.20	2	-0.11	6	50%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.13	0.28	0.00	16	65%	0.42	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.05
Torrey Craig	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.04	-0.04	5	64%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	0.06
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	14	43%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	7	43%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.06	0.01	7	65%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	13	41%	0.01	4	-0.16	1	0%	-0.05
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.12	-0.02	15	50%	0.04	6	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	26.7	12.8	26.3	1.7	37.2	130.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.9%

DEN +22.5%

DEN +15.1%

DAL -18.7%

DEN +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	14.7	97.8	98.9	107.5
season	15.4	14.7		105.3	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.3		109.9	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	18.1	16.7	14.5	17.7	16.7
DEN	14.0	15.3	15.5	14.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Collinsworth	29	29	0.51	-1.01	1.53	0.05	16	-18	34	15.2	17.4	-2.23	15.3	14.5	0.81
Salah Mejri	38	37	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.26	9	-11	20	15.8	17.4	-1.60	16.1	13.9	2.15
Yogi Ferrell	58	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.30	5	-7	12	16.2	17.6	-1.48	15.6	13.4	2.19
Maxi Kleber	65	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.27	4	-6	10	16.4	17.5	-1.08	15.2	13.8	1.44
Dirk Nowitzki	49	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	6	-14	17.1	16.2	0.93	14.1	15.6	-1.52
Dwight Powell	29	30	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	3	-8	17.6	16.3	1.36	14.0	15.2	-1.18
Harrison Barnes	66	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-2	2	16.5	17.2	-0.70	15.0	14.4	0.60
Dennis Smith Jr.	61	62	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.30	-13	11	-24	17.0	16.0	0.98	13.6	17.3	-3.77
Wesley Matthews	60	62	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.49	-18	16	-34	17.9	14.3	3.69	14.6	15.3	-0.70

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	73	73	1.14	-0.64	1.78	0.52	21	-19	40	14.5	15.9	-1.45	17.0	15.4	1.56
Mason Plumlee	59	58	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.50	9	-7	16	14.5	15.4	-0.94	16.9	16.4	0.52
Gary Harris	68	67	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.43	5	-3	8	14.9	14.5	0.45	16.6	16.9	-0.25
Nikola Jokic	75	76	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	-7	16	14.6	15.8	-1.26	17.2	14.0	3.22
Jamal Murray	59	58	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.50	-4	6	-10	14.7	15.0	-0.27	16.6	16.8	-0.25
Emmanuel Mudiay	8	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	6	-10	14.5	14.8	-0.32	16.5	16.7	-0.21
Wilson Chandler	18	18	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.09	-8	10	-18	14.2	14.9	-0.71	16.6	16.7	-0.10
Torrey Craig	51	49	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.06	-4	6	-10	15.2	14.3	0.86	16.5	16.9	-0.44
Trey Lyles	49	48	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	-0.03	-14	16	-30	15.8	13.6	2.19	15.6	17.9	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.74,0.56,0.48,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.72,0.57,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 107, DAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.72,0.55,0.96,1	88.8%
MEM 105, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.28,0.55,0.72,0.71,0.73,1	88.7%
DEN 94, OKC 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.72,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.4,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.39,0.55,0.23,0.58,1	88.6%