NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Excitement	8.3 [204]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +42.1%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	4.0 [383]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -43.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.19	0.13	0.02	14	87%	0.35	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	6	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	8	52%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Ish Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.03	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lance Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	11	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.02	0.02	0.02	17	62%	0.21	6	-0.23	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Collison	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	2	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Kendrick Perkins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	4	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.44	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.41,-0.44	-0.22	-0.22	-0.01	23	33%	-0.26	5	-0.18	9	67%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.22	0.21	0.01	13	79%	0.46	1	-0.04	12	100%	0.13
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.23	0.01	0.05	16	79%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.08	0.12	-0.06	17	39%	0.14	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	32%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	20	40%	-0.04	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	4	10%	-0.07	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	34.3	17.4	26.4	2.4	37.0	143.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +2.1%

DAL +33.3%

OKC -7.1%

DAL +23.6%

OKC -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	13.9	13.6	15.1	101.9	106.7	104.2
season	14.5	14.6		105.7	107.6
opponent	15.0	15.0		105.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.2	12.3	15.5	14.9	13.9
DAL	12.9	12.1	15.8	13.9	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	28	29	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-8	11	10.9	14.9	-4.01	13.6	13.6	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	31	30	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-9	13	11.9	14.7	-2.74	14.3	13.3	1.03
Lance Thomas	2	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-5	5	6.0	14.0	-8.02	20.0	13.5	6.50
Anthony Morrow	51	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-4	3	12.7	14.9	-2.22	13.6	13.5	0.15
Perry Jones	59	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-4	3	14.3	13.3	0.96	12.8	14.5	-1.67
Nick Collison	24	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-1	-3	13.5	14.0	-0.42	13.7	13.5	0.15
Serge Ibaka	81	80	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-4	3	14.0	13.5	0.42	13.5	13.7	-0.15
Steven Adams	51	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	2	-9	16.0	11.9	4.11	14.1	13.0	1.08
Andre Roberson	42	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-2	-1	15.4	12.9	2.52	12.8	14.1	-1.31
Russell Westbrook	77	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.37	-8	3	-11	14.9	10.9	4.01	13.6	13.6	0.01
Reggie Jackson	79	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.44	-7	2	-9	13.1	16.3	-3.19	13.8	13.0	0.80

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	75	73	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.30	17	-12	29	13.7	13.2	0.55	14.4	12.7	1.74
Dirk Nowitzki	62	62	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.31	16	-11	27	13.8	13.2	0.60	14.4	13.1	1.23
Chandler Parsons	76	77	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.46	7	-2	9	13.0	15.1	-2.13	14.5	12.1	2.35
Monta Ellis	72	72	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.10	9	-4	13	12.9	14.9	-1.96	14.3	12.9	1.44
Richard Jefferson	47	47	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.43	-3	8	-11	15.0	12.4	2.53	12.7	14.8	-2.11
Devin Harris	51	52	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	7	-9	13.9	13.2	0.66	13.2	14.6	-1.41
Charlie Villanueva	33	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.08	1	4	-3	12.3	14.2	-1.88	13.8	13.9	-0.16
Raymond Felton	3	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	10	-15	10.3	13.7	-3.32	8.0	14.1	-6.10
Jose Juan Barea	50	50	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	11	-17	13.3	13.8	-0.42	14.2	13.5	0.67
Greg Smith	56	55	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.08	-9	14	-23	14.3	12.7	1.63	13.0	14.9	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.72,0.55,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 82, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	90.7%
VAN 95, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.64,0.33,0.84,1	90.4%
MIA 82, PHX 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.8,0.74,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.36,0.55,0.73,1	90.3%