NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	89		Excitement	8.6 [195]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +29.5%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	50.5 [8]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -35.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,0.29	-0.05	0.33	-0.01	15	42%	0.34	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Buddy Hield	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.04	-0.00	15	80%	0.33	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Justin Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0	-0.05	0.05	0.00	13	38%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	39%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.07
Malachi Richardson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Skal Labissiere	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	7	28%	-0.07	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.22	0.02	-0.23	0.01	10	55%	-0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	16	62%	0.23	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	14	72%	0.26	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.06
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	58%	0.06	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.11	-0.02	10	36%	0.03	2	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	6	33%	-0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.35	-0.35	-0.15	-0.23	-0.02	13	21%	-0.32	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	27.2	15.3	26.4	1.8	32.3	128.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +47.4%

MIA -12.0%

MIA -13.9%

SAC +25.9%

SAC +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	16.3	14.7	95.7	92.6	107.5
season	15.4	15.1		102.9	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.7		105.8	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.8	14.2	15.0	13.1	14.3
MIA	18.6	15.2	14.4	17.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	60	59	1.09	-0.59	1.68	0.62	16	-15	31	13.3	16.0	-2.65	17.0	15.3	1.69
Bogdan Bogdanovic	68	69	0.97	-0.47	1.45	0.59	13	-12	25	13.8	15.6	-1.85	17.4	13.5	3.94
Willie Cauley-Stein	61	61	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.63	9	-8	17	13.6	15.5	-1.89	17.1	14.9	2.29
Zach Randolph	57	57	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.34	18	-17	35	13.1	16.2	-3.06	16.9	15.4	1.46
Buddy Hield	56	57	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.47	-2	3	-5	14.1	14.6	-0.51	15.5	17.5	-1.96
Justin Jackson	37	39	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	-4	9	13.9	14.5	-0.62	16.8	16.0	0.79
Garrett Temple	33	36	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.09	-15	16	-31	16.0	13.3	2.65	15.3	17.0	-1.69
Kosta Koufos	36	38	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	-0.15	-12	13	-25	15.4	13.6	1.79	15.4	17.0	-1.60
Skal Labissiere	32	34	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	-0.12	-13	14	-27	16.4	13.2	3.23	14.9	17.1	-2.16
Malachi Richardson	25	25	-0.53	1.03	-1.55	-0.12	-14	15	-29	16.6	13.4	3.21	14.4	17.0	-2.61

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	55	54	0.71	-1.21	1.92	0.15	19	-20	39	14.7	18.5	-3.75	15.3	12.9	2.31
Kelly Olynyk	38	37	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.24	10	-11	21	14.0	17.9	-3.83	16.3	12.9	3.38
Bam Adebayo	40	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.37	10	-11	21	13.5	18.4	-4.84	16.8	12.5	4.31
Hassan Whiteside	55	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.14	-11	10	-21	18.4	13.5	4.84	12.5	16.8	-4.31
Derrick Jones Jr.	29	28	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.01	-9	8	-17	19.0	15.1	3.90	13.2	14.8	-1.59
Wayne Ellington	69	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.54	0	-1	1	15.0	19.8	-4.85	15.0	12.4	2.59
Josh Richardson	69	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.64	1	-2	3	16.4	16.0	0.40	14.3	14.3	-0.08
James Johnson	57	56	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.47	-11	10	-21	17.9	14.0	3.83	12.9	16.3	-3.38
Goran Dragic	63	60	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.40	-14	13	-27	17.8	13.4	4.36	13.1	16.4	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.83,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.81,0.89,0.84,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 115, IND 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.77,0.72,0	92.0%
CHI 88, LAL 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0	90.9%
ORL 105, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.72,0	90.6%