NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	88		Excitement	7.2 [311]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +44.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	87		Comeback	139.8 [6]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -42.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.44	0.09	0.34	-0.01	13	85%	0.57	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.16	0.05	0.13	0.02	19	48%	0.16	0	0.00	6	100%	0.07
CJ Watson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.03
Taj Gibson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	6	46%	-0.00	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Omer Asik	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	27%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	12	25%	-0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Ebanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Goudelock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	14	41%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.03
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.42	-0.42	-0.10	-0.37	-0.04	23	53%	-0.10	8	-0.33	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	3.0	32.8	18.8	25.1	3.5	42.8	153.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +13.2%

CHI +12.6%

CHI +1.2%

CHI +17.5%

CHI +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	LAL	NBA	CHI	LAL	NBA
this game	15.5	17.4	15.6	101.1	98.9	102.8
season	16.0	16.2		104.7	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.9		103.5	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.1	16.1	16.4	16.6	15.5
LAL	17.6	17.4	14.2	21.3	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	72	73	0.96	-0.46	1.41	0.58	13	-12	25	14.7	19.2	-4.51	16.7	21.1	-4.46
Derrick Rose	66	68	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.56	7	-6	13	14.8	17.6	-2.77	16.7	20.0	-3.32
Joakim Noah	50	53	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.60	4	-3	7	14.9	16.2	-1.30	17.2	17.8	-0.61
Taj Gibson	27	27	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.68	-1	2	-3	16.2	15.1	1.04	18.6	16.9	1.67
Ronnie Brewer	47	48	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.53	1	0	1	13.6	17.7	-4.13	17.7	17.1	0.52
Richard Hamilton	40	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	1	-1	17.7	13.6	4.13	17.1	17.7	-0.52
Carlos Boozer	60	61	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.21	2	-1	3	15.1	16.2	-1.04	16.9	18.6	-1.67
Omer Asik	37	35	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.13	-3	4	-7	16.2	14.9	1.30	17.8	17.2	0.61
CJ Watson	21	20	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.09	-6	7	-13	17.6	14.8	2.77	20.0	16.7	3.32
Kyle Korver	15	15	-0.46	0.96	-1.41	-0.11	-12	13	-25	19.2	14.7	4.51	21.1	16.7	4.46

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Goudelock	19	20	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.10	6	-7	13	20.4	16.6	3.75	17.6	14.8	2.76
Troy Murphy	39	39	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.21	0	-1	1	18.8	16.4	2.40	16.1	15.0	1.14
Devin Ebanks	44	44	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.06	6	-7	13	15.8	19.1	-3.27	15.1	15.8	-0.68
Josh McRoberts	67	66	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.13	-5	4	-9	16.6	20.1	-3.50	15.2	16.3	-1.07
Pau Gasol	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.53	5	-6	11	17.9	15.9	1.98	15.4	15.7	-0.27
Derek Fisher	47	46	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.78	6	-7	13	14.6	20.6	-6.00	15.5	15.5	-0.03
Metta World Peace	44	43	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.41	-7	6	-13	19.1	15.8	3.27	15.8	15.1	0.68
Steve Blake	43	42	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.44	-9	8	-17	19.9	15.1	4.75	15.4	15.5	-0.13
Kobe Bryant	69	67	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.57	-7	6	-13	16.6	20.4	-3.75	14.8	17.6	-2.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 96, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.89,0.91,0.92,0	91.7%
SAC 89, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.83,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.81,0.89,0.84,0.74,0	90.9%
ORL 105, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.72,0	90.7%