NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	8.2 [214]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +20.7%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	17.8 [38]		LVP	Jason Terry (ATL): -23.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.21	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.21	0.03	0.18	-0.00	27	51%	0.24	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Shammond Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.09,0,0.09	-0.02	0.13	0.01	11	48%	0.09	0	0.00	9	89%	0.13
Rod Strickland	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Juwan Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0,0	0.06	-0.05	0.01	11	71%	0.11	2	-0.11	6	100%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	70%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	6	63%	0.03	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.04
Andrew DeClercq	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	10	35%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	6	29%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	15	59%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	4	80%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.02	19	58%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.01	3	58%	0.07	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.05
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	17	53%	0.06	6	-0.17	4	75%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.04	0.04	11	18%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.23	-0.23	-0.04	-0.19	0.01	15	48%	0.01	3	-0.25	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	27.4	15.5	24.5	2.0	37.1	135.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -8.4%

ORL +48.2%

ATL -18.8%

ORL +30.4%

ATL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	13.3	14.3	15.7	100.0	98.1	100.5
season	15.7	15.3		100.9	98.2
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.0	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	13.4	14.7	12.1	13.3
ATL	14.3	13.7	14.7	14.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	89	89	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.49	7	-4	11	13.0	14.7	-1.69	14.3	14.5	-0.19
Juwan Howard	71	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.54	3	0	3	13.4	13.0	0.34	14.7	13.5	1.28
Gordan Giricek	81	79	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	-3	9	14.2	10.0	4.17	14.8	12.6	2.25
Drew Gooden	67	68	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.35	3	0	3	12.6	14.5	-1.95	14.0	14.9	-0.85
Shammond Williams	81	79	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.38	-1	4	-5	13.2	13.5	-0.37	14.5	13.8	0.62
Donnell Harvey	29	29	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	-1	5	10.6	14.3	-3.74	13.2	14.7	-1.53
Andrew DeClercq	33	32	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	0	3	13.7	13.0	0.69	15.2	13.9	1.23
Zaza Pachulia	39	40	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.13	-3	6	-9	13.9	12.9	0.98	13.4	14.9	-1.52
Rod Strickland	35	36	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.12	-7	10	-17	14.1	12.8	1.33	13.7	14.6	-0.85

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	50	51	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-9	15	14.7	13.9	0.79	13.0	13.5	-0.54
Jacque Vaughn	75	75	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-3	3	14.2	14.6	-0.34	13.7	12.2	1.48
Lee Nailon	21	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	3	-9	12.7	14.7	-2.00	13.4	13.2	0.19
Jason Terry	84	86	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-7	11	14.5	13.6	0.81	13.7	11.2	2.56
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	83	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.42	3	-6	9	14.7	12.7	2.00	13.2	13.4	-0.19
Stephen Jackson	87	87	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.44	-5	2	-7	14.3	14.2	0.09	12.7	15.7	-2.98
Dion Glover	66	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.36	-8	5	-13	14.2	14.5	-0.30	12.9	14.0	-1.12
Theo Ratliff	54	54	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.43	-9	6	-15	13.9	14.7	-0.79	13.5	13.0	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 112, ORL 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.39,0.44,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.44,0.46,0.62,0.51,0.71,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.6,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.72,0	91.2%
NYK 90, WAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.82,0	91.0%
ORL 81, IND 77	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.78,0.42,0	91.0%