NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	101		Excitement	10.1 [65]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +85.1%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	6.7 [251]		LVP	CJ McCollum (POR): -24.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23	0.11	0.09	-0.04	18	66%	0.29	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.07
Ed Davis	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	6	56%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	7	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	4	87%	0.10	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,-0.02	0.04	0.01	0.07	13	59%	0.09	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Evan Turner	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12	0.04	-0.16	0.00	9	56%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	10	31%	-0.13	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	-0.00	14	35%	-0.06	2	-0.18	6	100%	0.09

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.59,0.59,0.85	0.85	0.34	0.53	0.01	19	86%	0.87	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.08
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.04	0.16	0.00	7	69%	0.23	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	56%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	4	10%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.00	0.04	7	32%	-0.08	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.06
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	14	41%	-0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.14	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.22	2	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	17	39%	-0.10	3	-0.09	7	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.0	28.7	14.6	27.5	1.6	41.0	140.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.5%

DEN +25.6%

POR -2.4%

POR -5.7%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.3	14.7	103.1	109.5	107.5
season	15.2	14.7		107.8	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.3		109.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.6	14.2	16.2	16.1	15.5
DEN	15.7	14.0	12.6	15.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	41	39	0.34	-0.84	1.17	0.07	9	-12	21	16.4	14.9	1.54	15.5	13.5	2.01
Shabazz Napier	44	42	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.18	4	-7	11	15.8	15.3	0.46	14.8	13.9	0.86
Zach Collins	41	39	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.09	4	-7	11	15.2	15.7	-0.52	14.0	14.5	-0.47
Pat Connaughton	41	40	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.27	9	-12	21	15.4	15.6	-0.22	14.5	14.1	0.42
Al-Farouq Aminu	55	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	8	-19	16.3	14.5	1.84	15.4	13.0	2.42
Damian Lillard	78	75	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.43	-8	5	-13	15.7	14.9	0.78	14.2	14.8	-0.69
CJ McCollum	74	72	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.47	-7	4	-11	15.0	17.0	-1.96	13.6	16.6	-2.98
Evan Turner	59	59	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.53	-7	4	-11	15.3	15.9	-0.63	14.1	14.7	-0.58
Jusuf Nurkic	57	56	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.52	-8	5	-13	14.9	16.4	-1.54	13.5	15.5	-2.01

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	60	59	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.51	10	-7	17	13.2	16.1	-2.91	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Will Barton	69	73	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.38	11	-8	19	13.8	15.6	-1.80	15.0	17.0	-1.93
Gary Harris	73	77	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.47	7	-4	11	13.8	16.0	-2.15	15.5	15.5	-0.00
Jamal Murray	65	69	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.39	7	-4	11	14.4	14.0	0.45	15.7	15.1	0.64
Nikola Jokic	61	64	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-6	15	15.8	11.6	4.14	15.8	15.0	0.80
Wilson Chandler	61	61	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.36	-12	15	-27	14.5	13.9	0.66	15.5	15.6	-0.08
Torrey Craig	16	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	5	-7	14.4	14.3	0.08	15.6	15.5	0.12
Emmanuel Mudiay	25	23	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	8	-13	13.9	14.4	-0.52	15.0	15.7	-0.68
Trey Lyles	45	48	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.12	-10	13	-23	15.0	13.7	1.24	16.0	15.0	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.44,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 101, SAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.2,0.06,0.25,0.21,0.43,0.58,1	90.8%
POR 107, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	90.8%
MIL 82, ORL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.32,0.42,1	90.5%