NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	10.4 [49]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +39.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	111		Comeback	5.9 [257]		LVP	Patty Mills (SAS): -25.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.49,0.46,0.34	0.17	0.17	0.00	16	74%	0.43	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02
Kyle Anderson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.2	-0.02	0.22	-0.00	4	67%	0.30	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.14
Davis Bertans	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	6	67%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	11	59%	0.10	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.03
Bryn Forbes	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brandon Paul	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.16,-0.05	0.16	-0.20	0.01	21	61%	-0.05	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.13
Dejounte Murray	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	6	23%	-0.06	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25	-0.05	-0.20	0.00	6	50%	-0.08	3	-0.17	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.06,-0.01,0.14,0.4	0.40	0.04	0.36	-0.00	24	49%	0.40	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.15	0.13	-0.00	10	86%	0.31	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	0.00	9	83%	0.29	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.01	15	49%	0.12	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.06
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	75%	0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.0	26.8	14.5	28.9	1.7	32.5	129.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +72.0%

SAS -25.9%

SAS -39.4%

POR +24.2%

POR +19.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	POR	NBA	SAS	POR	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	14.7	117.0	119.4	107.5
season	15.5	15.2		106.7	107.8
opponent	14.3	14.5		105.7	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.3	15.0	15.7	15.3	15.1
POR	16.4	15.6	15.6	15.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	56	56	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-5	9	15.5	14.5	1.01	15.1	16.6	-1.48
Bryn Forbes	53	54	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-2	3	15.7	14.2	1.52	15.6	16.0	-0.42
Brandon Paul	13	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	5	-11	13.3	15.4	-2.05	12.9	16.2	-3.26
LaMarcus Aldridge	66	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.49	10	-11	21	15.5	14.1	1.33	16.1	14.7	1.39
Davis Bertans	54	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	6	-13	14.5	15.8	-1.26	16.5	14.7	1.85
Joffrey Lauvergne	11	10	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	6	-13	14.2	15.2	-1.01	12.2	16.2	-3.96
Kyle Anderson	67	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.47	6	-7	13	15.6	13.7	1.87	16.2	14.5	1.76
Dejounte Murray	40	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-3	5	15.7	14.6	1.09	15.0	16.3	-1.31
Manu Ginobili	55	52	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	2	-5	14.2	16.3	-2.11	16.0	15.4	0.57
Patty Mills	55	52	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.37	-5	4	-9	14.4	16.0	-1.54	16.3	15.0	1.31

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Harkless	47	49	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.52	9	-8	17	14.7	16.8	-2.12	14.8	15.3	-0.50
Shabazz Napier	67	67	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.34	2	-1	3	15.1	17.4	-2.35	15.1	14.9	0.21
Pat Connaughton	47	49	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	-6	13	16.1	15.3	0.80	14.3	16.0	-1.69
Jusuf Nurkic	61	59	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.48	-7	8	-15	15.7	15.8	-0.17	15.7	14.0	1.76
CJ McCollum	72	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.47	-7	8	-15	16.1	14.5	1.56	15.6	13.5	2.11
Zach Collins	31	34	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.01	9	-8	17	16.1	15.6	0.50	13.7	15.8	-2.14
Al-Farouq Aminu	62	60	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.48	-8	9	-17	15.6	16.1	-0.50	15.8	13.7	2.14
Ed Davis	32	35	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	-7	15	15.8	15.7	0.17	14.0	15.7	-1.76
Evan Turner	46	45	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.05	-8	9	-17	16.8	14.7	2.12	15.3	14.8	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.3,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.53,0.54,0.14,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 84, ATL 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.83,0.6,0.73,0.39,0.45,0.22,0.42,1	90.8%
PHI 92, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.46,0.35,0.73,1	90.8%
BKN 93, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.42,1	90.1%