NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	129		Excitement	3.9 [1060]		MVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): +15.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	110		Comeback	1.6 [639]		LVP	Malcolm Brogdon (MIL): -9.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.20	0.03	0.08	9	87%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.06	0,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.02	0.04	12	75%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	8	58%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	7	71%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	65%	0.13	3	-0.12	7	71%	-0.00
Norman Powell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	10	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
OG Anunoby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	6	42%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.06	4	80%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.01	14	65%	0.13	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Sean Kilpatrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	29%	-0.03	1	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0,0,0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.05	0.02	12	63%	0.05	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.10	-0.02	0.17	13	66%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.8	27.3	13.8	27.5	2.4	28.4	129.6
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +40.5%

MIL -2.8%

TOR +12.5%

MIL -2.7%

TOR +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.2	13.8	14.7	135.8	113.4	107.5
season	14.6	14.3		112.7	108.5
opponent	15.4	14.8		108.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.3	15.2	14.0	17.5	16.2
MIL	13.0	12.6	16.5	13.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	57	60	0.67	-0.17	0.84	-0.33	34	-15	49	15.2	17.8	-2.60	14.6	12.5	2.16
Serge Ibaka	58	60	0.62	-0.12	0.75	-0.40	35	-16	51	14.8	18.5	-3.74	14.7	12.3	2.46
OG Anunoby	61	62	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	3	13	16.0	16.7	-0.74	14.2	13.1	1.06
Kyle Lowry	52	54	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.08	20	-1	21	15.6	17.0	-1.32	14.6	12.7	1.89
Jonas Valanciunas	36	38	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.26	26	-7	33	13.7	17.8	-4.04	14.7	13.2	1.46
Lucas Nogueira	34	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.24	-8	27	-35	18.1	15.2	2.85	13.2	14.1	-0.81
Norman Powell	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	26	-33	17.2	16.1	1.07	13.0	13.9	-0.90
Jakob Poeltl	16	17	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.06	-3	22	-25	19.7	15.5	4.23	12.3	14.1	-1.82
Delon Wright	40	42	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.23	6	13	-7	16.8	15.8	0.98	13.3	14.2	-0.90
Pascal Siakam	38	38	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.27	-11	30	-41	17.3	15.5	1.76	12.3	14.7	-2.43
CJ Miles	33	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.12	2	17	-15	17.1	15.8	1.36	12.9	14.3	-1.36
Fred VanVleet	38	37	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.27	-15	34	-49	17.8	15.2	2.60	12.5	14.6	-2.16

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Kilpatrick	12	12	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.11	11	-30	41	12.6	14.0	-1.38	19.2	15.8	3.36
Sterling Brown	14	14	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-28	37	12.9	13.9	-1.01	16.9	16.1	0.73
Jason Terry	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.06	-2	-17	15	13.2	13.9	-0.63	18.4	16.0	2.42
DeAndre Liggins	24	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-26	33	12.7	14.2	-1.44	17.5	15.8	1.70
Malcolm Brogdon	58	57	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-15	11	13.4	14.4	-0.99	16.9	15.2	1.66
Matthew Dellavedova	39	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.27	-13	-6	-7	14.4	13.4	1.07	17.3	15.5	1.87
Thon Maker	52	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-17	15	13.8	13.8	-0.01	16.8	15.6	1.24
Tony Snell	51	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	-10	1	13.5	14.1	-0.64	15.0	17.6	-2.68
John Henson	36	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	-4	-11	13.9	13.7	0.24	14.8	17.1	-2.31
Giannis Antetokounmpo	69	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.09	-16	-3	-13	13.6	14.2	-0.59	16.6	15.3	1.25
Khris Middleton	62	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.24	-29	10	-39	14.6	12.3	2.31	15.3	17.8	-2.53
Eric Bledsoe	59	57	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	0.31	-32	13	-45	14.2	13.1	1.13	15.2	17.8	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 109, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
SAS 116, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
MIL 94, MIA 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%