NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	94		Excitement	3.5 [1083]		MVP	John Salmons (MIL): +10.0%
Miami Heat	71		Comeback	1.3 [581]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -9.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.02	11	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	0.02	0.06	10	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	69%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.03	11	68%	0.10	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	11	46%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	7	43%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	10	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.05	8	31%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	56%	0.04	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	11	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	14	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	10	32%	-0.05	4	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.6	30.3	16.5	24.7	1.8	23.6	120.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +46.5%

MIL +5.2%

MIL +0.3%

MIA -0.7%

MIA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.3	108.0	79.8	106.0
season	15.5	16.2		103.3	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		102.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.4	16.2	14.7	18.8	16.5
MIA	16.3	15.8	18.0	14.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	54	56	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.11	22	1	21	15.5	18.1	-2.52	17.2	14.6	2.64
Andrew Bogut	53	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.11	22	1	21	16.2	16.9	-0.73	17.5	14.4	3.15
Brandon Jennings	53	54	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.17	24	-1	25	16.2	16.9	-0.73	17.5	14.2	3.31
Luc Mbah a Moute	41	43	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.08	18	5	13	16.1	16.8	-0.66	18.0	14.5	3.50
Carlos Delfino	66	67	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	16	-9	16.7	16.0	0.71	16.7	14.8	1.88
Jerry Stackhouse	47	47	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.21	14	9	5	17.0	15.9	1.15	15.0	17.6	-2.53
Ersan Ilyasova	39	39	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.06	4	19	-15	16.5	16.5	-0.06	15.1	17.1	-2.06
Primoz Brezec	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	18.7	16.3	2.41	11.6	16.6	-5.06
Royal Ivey	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	18.7	16.3	2.41	11.6	16.6	-5.06
Charlie Bell	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	20	-17	18.7	16.3	2.41	12.5	16.6	-4.10
Kurt Thomas	34	36	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.06	1	22	-21	16.9	16.2	0.73	14.4	17.5	-3.15
Luke Ridnour	27	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	25	-27	16.5	16.5	-0.02	14.9	16.9	-1.96

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	18	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-24	25	13.7	16.9	-3.22	19.9	15.6	4.35
Carlos Arroyo	22	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.13	-5	-18	13	14.8	16.7	-1.88	18.8	15.8	2.99
James Jones	40	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.20	-10	-13	3	15.2	17.0	-1.79	16.1	16.9	-0.78
Quentin Richardson	19	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-17	11	17.3	16.0	1.31	16.2	16.6	-0.39
Udonis Haslem	50	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.18	-11	-12	1	15.0	17.8	-2.82	17.2	15.5	1.72
Mario Chalmers	40	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	-12	1	15.1	17.2	-2.11	17.1	15.9	1.21
Jamaal Magloire	5	6	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-15	7	21.4	15.9	5.47	13.3	16.7	-3.40
Jermaine O'Neal	45	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-11	-1	17.1	15.4	1.68	16.1	16.8	-0.70
Michael Beasley	60	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.15	-16	-7	-9	17.0	14.7	2.29	15.4	18.7	-3.34
Rafer Alston	42	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	-12	1	18.1	14.6	3.57	15.4	17.4	-1.93
Dorell Wright	48	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-11	-1	16.5	16.0	0.53	15.6	17.6	-1.97
Daequan Cook	56	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	-9	-5	16.4	16.0	0.33	17.1	15.5	1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 100, DEN 82	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
TOR 94, NYK 74	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
SEA 109, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%