NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	93		Excitement	9.3 [115]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +10.6%
Charlotte Hornets	91		Comeback	1.1 [571]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -59.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.13	-0.00	0.02	17	69%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.05
Ed Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Pat Connaughton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	30%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	10	52%	0.10	2	-0.12	7	57%	-0.06
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.24	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	7	12%	-0.22	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Damian Lillard	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	-0.01	19	45%	-0.05	5	-0.19	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Turner	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.03,-0.3	-0.03	-0.28	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	3	-0.36	2	50%	-0.03

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.15	-0.08	0.01	17	68%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	11	52%	0.03	0	0.00	7	100%	0.06
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Treveon Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.07
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	8%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	7	14%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	10	36%	-0.04	3	-0.12	5	60%	-0.01
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.17,-0.59	-0.59	-0.20	-0.40	-0.01	26	27%	-0.50	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.1	24.9	15.3	23.7	1.7	39.8	134.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +109.1%

CHA -18.4%

POR +18.9%

CHA -62.2%

POR +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	CHA	NBA	POR	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	13.7	14.7	93.9	91.0	107.5
season	15.2	14.6		107.8	108.7
opponent	14.5	14.3		108.5	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.9	14.1	16.0	14.2	15.2
CHA	13.8	14.7	14.7	12.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	47	49	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.34	7	-5	12	15.1	15.4	-0.32	13.7	13.7	-0.05
Damian Lillard	79	79	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.37	2	0	2	15.1	15.7	-0.59	13.7	13.9	-0.23
Ed Davis	47	47	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	-7	16	15.2	15.3	-0.12	13.3	14.1	-0.72
CJ McCollum	80	82	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	3	-4	15.1	15.7	-0.56	13.4	15.3	-1.90
Pat Connaughton	35	36	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	-6	14	15.5	15.1	0.48	13.5	13.8	-0.30
Evan Turner	71	69	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.50	-9	11	-20	14.9	16.0	-1.02	14.2	12.6	1.60
Jusuf Nurkic	52	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.37	-7	9	-16	15.3	15.2	0.12	14.3	13.1	1.26
Zach Collins	29	28	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	2	-2	17.2	14.4	2.74	13.1	13.9	-0.80
Noah Vonleh	17	19	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	2	-2	14.3	15.4	-1.13	15.6	13.3	2.36
Shabazz Napier	38	39	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	1	0	15.1	15.3	-0.21	13.0	14.2	-1.18

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	57	57	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.07	8	-10	18	14.5	12.7	1.75	16.0	14.2	1.73
Treveon Graham	12	11	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-4	6	11.4	14.0	-2.62	15.7	15.2	0.56
Johnny O'Bryant III	16	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	3	-8	14.7	13.5	1.23	14.8	15.3	-0.50
Marvin Williams	51	52	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-2	2	14.3	13.1	1.21	15.3	15.2	0.12
Dwight Howard	70	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.44	6	-8	14	14.0	13.0	1.03	15.4	14.8	0.62
Kemba Walker	79	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.45	5	-7	12	13.6	14.3	-0.78	15.5	14.3	1.20
Michael Carter-Williams	35	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	8	-18	13.0	14.1	-1.11	14.5	15.6	-1.16
Frank Kaminsky	50	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.22	-7	5	-12	13.1	14.3	-1.16	15.2	15.2	0.03
Nicolas Batum	80	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	2	-6	14.0	12.5	1.53	14.5	18.0	-3.53
Jeremy Lamb	50	50	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.53	-5	3	-8	12.9	14.5	-1.64	15.3	15.1	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.15,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.33,0.37,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, BOS 101	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.27,0	91.8%
DAL 113, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.16,0	91.6%
SAC 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.27,0	91.2%