NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	113		Excitement	8.1 [226]		MVP	Eddie Griffin (HOU): +12.4%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	1.4 [867]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -20.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	18	62%	0.17	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Tim Hardaway	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.06,0.06	-0.04	0.11	0.01	9	42%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02	22	62%	0.24	5	-0.19	6	83%	-0.00
Adrian Griffin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.02	8	83%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	16	49%	-0.09	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.03	16	59%	0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.17	-0.10	0.03	19	78%	0.24	3	-0.20	7	86%	0.02
Tierre Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	37%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	11	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.07	0.01	23	45%	-0.10	4	-0.10	10	70%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.0	28.0	16.7	25.8	2.6	34.4	136.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.3%

DAL +2.3%

DAL +12.7%

DAL +4.5%

HOU -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	15.3	15.6	116.5	108.1	102.3
season	14.8	16.8		109.6	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.5		106.4	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.1	11.5	15.8	15.9	14.0
HOU	16.2	17.3	14.2	13.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	33	34	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-4	14	13.5	14.3	-0.74	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Dirk Nowitzki	82	82	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	4	-2	13.7	16.1	-2.41	15.0	16.9	-1.86
Eduardo Najera	58	62	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-4	14	14.3	13.6	0.78	15.0	16.0	-1.01
Juwan Howard	74	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	3	0	13.8	14.7	-0.81	16.2	12.6	3.64
Steve Nash	83	85	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	1	4	14.3	12.5	1.79	14.9	18.1	-3.18
Shawn Bradley	21	20	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	5	-4	14.6	13.9	0.69	13.5	15.8	-2.31
Johnny Newman	30	31	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	-2	10	12.7	14.6	-1.98	15.4	15.3	0.06
Wang Zhi-zhi	27	27	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.08	4	2	2	14.0	14.1	-0.09	16.3	15.0	1.26
Adrian Griffin	62	64	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.14	-6	12	-18	14.6	13.1	1.48	15.5	15.1	0.44
Danny Manning	15	15	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.10	-7	13	-20	15.3	13.8	1.54	17.4	15.0	2.42

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tierre Brown	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	6.0	15.4	-9.44	0.0	14.0	-14.03
Kevin Willis	36	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-5	4	15.9	15.0	0.94	13.2	14.5	-1.29
Eddie Griffin	83	81	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-7	8	15.1	16.7	-1.68	14.7	10.7	4.00
Kelvin Cato	55	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-1	-4	15.3	15.4	-0.04	15.0	12.9	2.14
Oscar Torres	27	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	2	-10	15.1	15.4	-0.37	11.7	14.9	-3.28
Terence Morris	79	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-6	6	15.4	15.1	0.31	14.4	12.6	1.74
Moochie Norris	40	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	5	-16	15.8	15.0	0.85	12.4	15.2	-2.78
Steve Francis	91	89	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.35	0	-6	6	15.0	19.4	-4.39	14.0	14.6	-0.65
Cuttino Mobley	83	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	0	-6	15.7	13.7	1.90	14.4	12.0	2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, CLE 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.04,0	93.1%
SAC 114, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.26,0	92.8%
DAL 93, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.08,0	92.8%