NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	114		Excitement	9.1 [107]		MVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): +54.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	113		Comeback	1.7 [117]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -43.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.55	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.55	0.11	0.44	-0.00	16	66%	0.59	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.17
Mikki Moore	0.17	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.12	-0.01	7	78%	0.28	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Martin	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	12	66%	0.09	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.01
Quincy Douby	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	11	64%	0.12	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.03	0.08	-0.11	-0.00	8	94%	0.22	3	-0.25	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	14	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0,0.24	0.24	0.01	0.24	0.02	18	57%	0.36	4	-0.12	8	87%	0.04
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.09	-0.01	10	71%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	9	80%	0.21	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	14	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	7	36%	-0.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.43	-0.43	0.03	-0.45	0.01	18	51%	-0.31	3	-0.13	15	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.0	33.0	15.5	27.4	3.3	39.4	150.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +57.6%

SAC +25.7%

LAL -14.0%

LAL -21.2%

SAC +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	LAL	NBA	SAC	LAL	NBA
this game	14.2	13.5	15.4	110.7	107.6	105.7
season	14.9	14.6		105.6	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.0		104.1	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.3	14.0	14.1	15.7	14.2
LAL	11.1	13.7	13.6	16.3	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	94	96	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.45	4	-3	7	14.1	14.9	-0.76	13.7	11.7	2.01
Kevin Martin	83	83	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	-2	5	13.9	15.4	-1.56	13.1	15.0	-1.83
Brad Miller	46	47	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.66	-5	6	-11	14.6	13.9	0.75	13.4	13.6	-0.22
John Salmons	45	45	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	-1	3	14.0	14.3	-0.31	13.3	13.7	-0.38
Shelden Williams	9	11	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	-9	19	14.6	14.2	0.40	14.2	13.4	0.76
Francisco Garcia	49	53	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	-6	13	14.9	13.6	1.30	14.6	12.4	2.18
Mikki Moore	68	67	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.47	-8	9	-17	14.3	13.9	0.42	14.1	12.5	1.57
Quincy Douby	9	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	4	-7	14.9	14.1	0.76	11.7	13.7	-2.01
Metta World Peace	62	62	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.06	-5	6	-11	13.8	14.8	-1.01	12.3	15.2	-2.85
Spencer Hawes	50	52	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.11	0	1	-1	14.0	14.3	-0.30	13.8	13.2	0.64

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Walton	30	31	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.02	5	-6	11	11.3	14.4	-3.13	13.6	14.4	-0.79
Vladimir Radmanovic	45	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.09	-6	5	-11	14.2	12.9	1.29	14.6	13.9	0.77
Jordan Farmar	35	34	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.11	-7	6	-13	14.4	13.1	1.34	13.0	14.8	-1.78
Ronny Turiaf	26	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	4	-9	15.6	12.8	2.75	14.7	14.1	0.59
Lamar Odom	90	91	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.45	10	-11	21	13.2	15.5	-2.29	14.3	13.1	1.26
Derek Fisher	66	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.57	6	-7	13	13.4	13.7	-0.38	14.8	13.2	1.61
Sasha Vujacic	46	41	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.45	-2	1	-3	14.1	13.0	1.11	14.6	13.9	0.65
Kobe Bryant	93	93	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.57	1	-2	3	13.3	14.9	-1.59	14.0	15.8	-1.78
Pau Gasol	94	92	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.53	-7	6	-13	13.2	15.7	-2.48	13.9	16.4	-2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 113, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.16,0	92.8%
DAL 95, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.12,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	92.0%
MIN 108, NJN 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.37,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.09,0.04,0	91.9%