NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	7.6 [285]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIN): +12.4%
New Jersey Nets	101		Comeback	1.4 [314]		LVP	Sam Cassell (NJN): -12.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	8	89%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Stanley Roberts	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	16	60%	0.11	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.05
Chris Carr	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	14	53%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Cherokee Parks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09	-0.08	0.01	0.02	12	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Sam Mitchell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	14	50%	-0.06	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	20	54%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	15	51%	-0.02	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.04
Michael Cage	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	11	62%	0.08	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	12	41%	-0.04	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.04	-0.13	0.02	17	61%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	0.7	28.6	16.3	26.6	2.6	37.7	134.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +10.5%

MIN +22.6%

MIN +13.9%

NJN -2.5%

MIN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NJN	NBA	MIN	NJN	NBA
this game	15.5	15.5	15.6	117.4	107.4	102.5
season	14.8	15.6		105.3	104.9
opponent	15.2	15.7		103.9	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.7	13.7	18.8	15.2	15.5
NJN	14.1	17.6	14.1	16.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	47	51	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.19	20	-13	33	13.4	17.7	-4.26	15.7	15.1	0.63
Sam Mitchell	55	56	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.20	14	-7	21	14.9	16.4	-1.45	16.2	14.4	1.74
Kevin Garnett	78	79	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-2	11	15.1	17.9	-2.85	15.5	15.1	0.46
Tom Gugliotta	73	76	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	6	-5	16.2	12.9	3.30	14.9	17.6	-2.66
Stephon Marbury	71	72	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	9	-11	16.1	13.5	2.64	15.1	16.5	-1.42
Reggie Jordan	32	31	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	-1	9	15.2	15.7	-0.54	17.3	14.5	2.78
Stanley Roberts	40	40	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	5	-3	15.6	15.5	0.11	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Cherokee Parks	30	31	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.02	-5	12	-17	16.0	15.3	0.68	16.0	15.2	0.81
Chris Carr	34	34	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.10	-12	19	-31	17.5	14.4	3.11	14.0	16.3	-2.24

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Cage	11	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-5	3	18.0	15.1	2.88	13.5	15.8	-2.30
David Benoit	18	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-3	-1	15.4	15.5	-0.08	12.8	16.2	-3.40
Lucious Harris	18	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-2	-3	17.8	14.9	2.94	17.6	15.1	2.56
Sam Cassell	53	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	-2	-3	15.1	15.9	-0.79	14.7	16.5	-1.79
Sherman Douglas	45	45	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-3	-1	16.9	14.1	2.75	16.0	15.1	0.87
Kerry Kittles	76	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-5	3	14.9	17.8	-2.94	15.1	17.6	-2.56
Keith Van Horn	85	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	15.1	18.9	-3.79	15.6	14.3	1.31
Kendall Gill	83	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-3	-1	15.0	18.6	-3.60	15.9	12.7	3.27
Jayson Williams	81	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-3	-1	15.4	16.0	-0.63	16.2	12.1	4.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.37,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.09,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 102, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.1,0.04,0	93.1%
MEM 94, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.16,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.16,0.01,0	92.5%
DAL 95, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.12,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	92.1%